Goodbye to fir and pine trees, how forests will change in 2100

From a methodological point of view, the survey constitutes one of the largest macro-ecological analyzes conducted on the European continent, having processed over 135 million years of forest simulation. To map these transitions, the research team integrated 17 distinct ecological process models developed in different national contexts, processing the data using advanced deep learning algorithms. This artificial intelligence system made it possible to project the adaptive response and establishment capacity of nine of the most relevant forest species for the continent’s economy and environment. Projections indicate that, in the most severe climate scenario, approximately 96 million hectares of forest will change their floristic composition by 2100, locating the greatest vulnerabilities in transition areas such as the Alpine arc, southern Scandinavia and the internal portions of the Mediterranean region.

Empirical data shows that six of the nine species monitored recorded a clear decline in their competitive strength, with a marked impact on evergreen conifers such as spruce, silver fir and Scots pineespecially in the southern and drier margins of their native areas. On the contrary, deciduous species such as beech and oak demonstrate superior physiological resilience, maintaining or increasing their share of dominance in the same contexts. Alessio Collalti, Cnr-Isafom researcher and head of the Forestry Modeling Laboratory, clarified the scope of the phenomenon: “Europe’s forests are not simply reacting to climate change in terms of growth or mortality: they are changing the ecological balances that determine which species are able to prevail in the long term. The loss of competitiveness of a species represents an early sign of possible changes in the composition of forests, with direct consequences on their ability to accumulate carbon, use water and support biodiversity”.

The biological complexity of forest systems requires the adoption of multifactorial investigation tools, capable of connecting local biochemical processes with macro-scale climate dynamics. Daniela Dalmonech, researcher at the same Cnr institute, clarified: “This work demonstrates how important it is to integrate ecological process models, climate data and artificial intelligence to understand the response of forest ecosystems to global changes. Forests are complex systems, and understanding their dynamics requires tools capable of simultaneously observing biological and climatic processes and interactions between species on very large spatial scales”.

So long as conifers currently represent more than half of the European forest heritage and constitute the backbone of the industrial wood supply chain, understanding these trends becomes a crucial factor for territorial planning and economics.

As concluded by Collalti: “Silvicultural decisions made today will determine the face of Europe’s forests for the first decades. Identifying the most vulnerable areas in advance allows us to design forests that are more resilient, diverse and capable of continuing to provide essential ecosystem services in a changing climateThe evolution of silvicultural techniques must therefore be based on robust predictive models to orient reforestation programs towards criteria of biodiversity and long-term ecological stability.