The Syrian rebels are committed to quickly reconciling and rebuilding the country after the civil war, but will face many challenges from a history of geographical division.
When the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group and allied forces last week took control of the capital Damascus and became the winning side in the 14-year civil war in Syria, many people thought about a stable future. more for this Middle Eastern country.
After overthrowing the government of President Bashar al-Assad, HTS pledged to quickly rebuild, stabilize the country and end the war. “People are exhausted from war. Our country is not ready to face or participate in another war,” Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, leader of HTS, declared.
However, achieving such stability is a huge challenge for HTS as well as the entire country of Syria. According to experts, the 14-year civil war in Syria is ostensibly a sectarian and ideological conflict, but it has always been driven by geographical factors.
After World War II, Syria became the most unstable country in the Middle East, with at least eight coups carried out from the end of French colonial rule in 1946 until 1970.
During the half-century that the Assad family led Syria, the country continued to experience many years of instability, starting with the “Arab spring” movement that led to anti-government protests that broke out in 2011. followed by civil war and the rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) rebels.
The intervention of external forces such as the US, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran makes the situation in Syria even more complicated. The people of this country are too familiar with the story of this conflict ending in the beginning of further struggles and many people have called this a “geographic curse” that has haunted Syria for a long time.
According to Arash Reisinezhad, an expert at the Middle East Center at the London University of Politics and Economics, UK, Syria has a strategic geographical location but is too flat, lacking important natural barriers both within its territory and along the border to be able to protect the country.
To the west is the Mediterranean, a vital maritime trade route, to the east is the Euphrates River valley, to the south is the desert and to the north is the plain at the foot of the Taurus Mountains.
Reisinezhad argues that Syria’s geography does not provide defenses to prevent attacks from outside, nor are there strongholds inside the country that would serve as a last line of defense.
Topographic map of Syria. Graphics: FineArtAmerica
Most of Syria’s current borders are artificially divided by colonialists, not natural. The southern border is a straight line and the eastern border is roughly the same. This creates fragile boundaries in Syrian history and blurred national identities.
Geographic fragmentation has divided Syria into six separate parts, including an oasis in the southwest, a gateway in the north, a coastal strip in the west, a rugged plateau in the south, a north-south corridor in the center and flat, barren land to the east.
The capital Damascus lies at the heart of the oasis surrounded on one side by the mountains of Lebanon and on the other by flat desert. Despite its central location, Damascus has few routes to the rest of the country.
To the north was Aleppo, a natural trade gateway connecting Asia Minor to the north and Mesopotamia to the east. The powers that once dominated Asia Minor, first the Romans, then the Ottomans, and now Türkiye, have always wanted to control this densely populated commercial center, making Aleppo a target. fought between parties in history.
To the west, a low mountain range overlooking the Mediterranean forms a long but narrow coastal strip that has been a refuge for religious minorities such as the Alawites and Christians in historic Syria.
These minorities faced constant pressure from Sunni Muslim rulers further afield, whether at the mouth of the Nile or along the Marmara coast. The port city of Latakia and Tartus located here are important gateways that help Syria access the outside world.
Control of the western coast is essential to maintaining relationships with external allies, helping to form the basis of power for the leadership in Damascus over the region.
Between the two above areas there is a corridor running along the north-south axis, connecting Damascus with the commercial gateway of Aleppo. The cities of Homs and Hama lie along this corridor. The regime in Damascus can only maintain control of Aleppo through this corridor, and uprisings against Damascus often aim to cut it off. Syria’s key M5 highway was built along this corridor.
To the east of the country lies the Euphrates River valley and a large area of flat but barren land that forms part of the Jazira region. Jazira spans northern Iraq, southeastern Türkiye, and northeastern Syria, including three major cities: Mosul, Amid, now Diyarbakir, and Raqqa.
Stretching from Mosul to Raqqa, this land is quite homogeneous and the people have similar religious and linguistic characteristics. Throughout history, these two areas have been closely linked, with those who governed Mosul often ruling over Raqqa and vice versa.
Location of key cities in Syria. Graphics: AP
The rugged terrain of the Jabal al-Druze volcanic plateau and the Hauran plateau to the south, near the Jordanian border, make up another part of Syria. The area has provided a safe haven for historically persecuted minority sects, such as the Druze.
Unlike most other parts of the country, which are predominantly Sunni Muslim, Syria’s southern mountains and western coastal strip are known for their diversity of religious groups and sects. minority.
However, this diversity does not create unity. Minorities are unlikely to form stable coalitions against the Sunni majority.
Overall, geography has divided Syria into separate regions, including Damascus, the isolated capital with limited access to other areas, and the Turkish-influenced trade gateway of Aleppo. United States, the unstable Homs-Hama-Idlib corridor connects the political center with the commercial gateway, along with the narrow Mediterranean coastline and the Jabal al-Druze plateau.
One of the roots of the lack of a strong national government in Syria lies in this “geography curse” and fragmentation. Combined with the lack of a strong national identity, Syria has become the target of many regional and international powers. The crux of the problem lies in the fact that viable and accessible alternatives threaten to disrupt the country’s territorial integrity.
For the above reason, Syrian authorities have had to use tough measures against uprisings to prevent the risk of collapse in the country.
Military campaigns, trade and religious interactions have all contributed to the historical division and instability of Syria, a land whose inhabitants come from many ethnicities, languages and religions. different people living together.
Amid persistent internal tensions among these heterogeneous populations, establishing a truly independent, unified national government is a challenge, observers say.
Syrian rebel forces in Homs province on December 7. Image: Reuters
Syria was previously completely under the rule of major empires such as the Assyrians, Achaemenid Persians, Arabs and Ottomans. It also became a hotbed of disputes between great powers, such as between Rome and Parthia, Byzantium and the Sasanians or the Ilkhanate and the Mamluks.
Geographic logic has always dictated that whoever holds the Homs-Hama corridor will emerge as the decisive winner in Syria. The collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government became inevitable when rebels took control of this strip of land.
“Those rebels, now in control of Damascus, may believe that the fate of Syria is now in their hands. However, they will soon realize that it will be difficult for them to decipher the geographical conundrum. of the country”, expert Reisinezhad commented.