Conquering Canada doesn’t suit the Republicans

No one has taken seriously the hypothesis, actually raised with some energy, of theannexation of Canada to the United States, but someone has asked the question of what would happen – at least from a political point of view – if it really happened. And, Politico.com found, It wouldn’t suit the Republicans support this scenario with great enthusiasm. Democrats would benefit greatly, with the new large state of Canada serving as second Californiaa huge ‘blue’ state that would gain dozens of House seats and create a huge Democratic advantage in the Electoral College.
Canada would be solidly democratic and a poll taken before the presidential elections revealed that Canadians, given the opportunity to vote, would have sided en masse with Kamala Harris over Trump.

With Canada secured, Democrats would need to win only two key states in the 2028 presidential election, although that would not secure them the White House: Trump would still defeat Harris in 2024 even with Canada in the union, since he has lost any key states.
In the Senate things would be simpler: Canada would get two senators and, given his overall liberal politics, there is no doubt that they would be Democrats. This would slightly reduce the Republicans’ margin compared to the current Congress: there would be 53 Republican senators versus 49 Democrats.

In the House it would be more complicated: if it remained with 435 members, the distribution would give Canada 45 seats. That would be just one less than California, which would have 46. In total, 31 states would lose seats to Canada: six from California, four from Texas; three from Florida and two each from New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. About twenty would lose one each. That would almost certainly boost House Democrats’ numbers, but it’s impossible to know by how much due to redistricting.

Moving House seats to Canada would also mean a significant change in the Electoral College, reshaping presidential elections. Right now, blue states represent 226 electoral votes, red states 219, and the seven battlegrounds (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona) have 93. With Canada’s 47 electoral votes ( 45 House seats + 2 senators), Democrats would enter an election with 253 seats, Republicans would have 202, and there would be 85 up for grabs.

The Democratic candidate would need just 18 electoral votes to reach 271 and gain a majority of what is now 540 votes in the Electoral College. That would require a minimum of just two battlegrounds, while Republicans would have to win at least five — a daunting, but not insurmountable, disadvantage. Trump, after all, would have won anyway. And if Greenland became the 52nd state… it would be a completely different story.