Joseph Aon was elected president of Lebanon – what will happen to the ceasefire agreement?

After two years of political and constitutional crisis, he was elected Joseph Aon for the presidency of Lebanon with an impressive majority of 99 votes. His election, which came after a second round of voting, marks a turning point in the complicated Lebanese political system, but comes with a series of significant challenges. The dramatic move to achieve the overwhelming majority took place between the two rounds of voting. Jonathan Alhouri an expert and lecturer on Lebanon and public diplomacy, explains the process: “In the first round, he received only 71 votes. The Speaker of the Parliament took a two-hour break during the elections, and in these discussions they actually met together with Joseph Aon, and apparently reached some sort of agreement.”

The constitutional crisis that accompanied Aon’s election was complex. “First of all he is the Chief of Staff, he needed a cooling off period of two years in order to be elected president. That’s why it was important to both him and others that he be elected with the necessary majority for the president,” explains Alhouri. “Because otherwise, if he were elected with a normal majority, the laws in Lebanon would have to be changed.”

One of Aon’s significant advantages is precisely his being a stranger to the traditional political system. “This is one of the reasons why many supported him within the Lebanese parliament, as a candidate outside the political game,” notes Alhouri. “They said in the end that they tried from the political game, all people are affected by such and such things, so maybe a candidate outside the political system could be something that would restart the wheels, and also kind of put Lebanon back on the right path.”

In the economic and international context, Aon’s election signals new hope. “As soon as they see that there is a future for Lebanon, which does not include a future of war, it can pour a lot of forces into Lebanon, whether it is Western countries, such as the United States which supports it, or even another investment from Saudi Arabia,” Alhouri explains. “There is also the The Lebanese community that wishes to return again and support Lebanese businesses, and restore the Lebanese economy.”

Another significant point is the relations with Syria and Israel. “One of the biggest advantages at the moment, Syria and the Assad regime has fallen, he no longer has political involvement in Lebanese affairs as he had until then. And this can give him much more freedom of action with Western countries, and even with Israel,” emphasizes Alhouri.

However, the challenges facing Aon are significant and complex. “He has some very strong challenges,” Alhouri elaborates. “The economic challenge, that Lebanon is already in a much deeper economic crisis than 2019 until today. The social crisis within Lebanon, between the various groups, which deepened because of the war that Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into.”

Aon’s election strengthens Lebanon’s institutional capacity. “The transitional government has few powers,” Alhouri explains. “Therefore, in terms of the agreement with Israel, for example, his ability to enforce this agreement has increased significantly. Because there is currently a president who will enforce the agreement. Because at the end of the day, it’s the status of the president, the president decides on these things.”

In conclusion, as Alhouri points out, “the political floundering that existed for about two years for the president has been resolved. Because right now the government apparatus can be put back into action.” However, “now he is facing a challenge within the parliament between the various factions. And this is actually the way now to see in the coming months how it goes in terms of the parliament.”