Before the war, the head of the Mossad, Dedi Barnea, estimated that following the fighting, it would be possible to encourage the Iranian opposition to take to the streets.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration in recent days that the Mossad’s promises that the war with Iran would ignite widespread protests did not materialize. In security discussions, he even expressed fear that Trump might decide to end the war before the actions yield results.
The head of the Mossad, Dedi Barnea, estimated that within days of the start of the fighting, it would be possible to encourage the Iranian opposition to take to the streets, ignite riots and even lead to a widespread uprising. He even presented the idea to senior officials in Donald Trump’s administration during a visit to Washington in January.
Last week, the program revealed the fact that before the start of the attack, the ranks of the profession were presented to the Prime Minister. According to sources, the head of the Mossad, Dedi Barnea, made an assessment in closed discussions that the overthrow of the regime in Iran is possible.
According to the same sources, Barnea said that if the operational goals of the war are achieved, i.e. severe damage to individuals, leadership, government institutions and the power of regime repression – the Mossad and the CIA will in turn know how to bring about a result in everything that concerns the replacement of the regime: taking Iranians to the streets and finding an alternative government.
The New York Times reported that Netanyahu has adopted the plan, and Trump also seems to believe in the optimistic scenario according to which the elimination of Iran’s leadership alongside intelligence operations will lead to a popular uprising that will quickly end the war.
The American newspaper also reported that in the run-up to the war, Netanyahu used the Mossad’s optimistic assessments to convince Trump that the collapse of the Iranian regime was a realistic goal. However, senior officials in the United States and the Israeli security establishment doubted this from the beginning. American military personnel told the president that civilians were not expected to demonstrate during the bombings, and intelligence assessments determined that the chance of a widespread rebellion was low.
As the fighting progressed, American officials almost completely stopped talking publicly about the possibility of an insurgency, although some still leave an opening for such a scenario in the future. Netanyahu himself told the foreign media: “It is too early to say whether the Iranian people will take advantage of the conditions we are creating to take to the streets. I hope so – but it will depend only on them.”
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