Mr. Trump’s statement reduces the risk to the ‘lifeblood’ of the Middle East

President Donald Trump on March 23 announced that he was negotiating with Iran to resolve the conflict between the two sides and canceled the plan to attack the country’s power plants within the 48-hour deadline set previously.

This ultimatum was issued by Mr. Trump on March 21, which warned that Iran’s entire power plant would be destroyed if the country did not completely open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. This narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf has been in a state of paralysis since February 28, when Iran attacked more than 20 cargo ships in the area in response to the US-Israel attack.

Responding to Mr. Trump’s threat at that time, the Iranian armed forces announced that if their power plants were attacked, all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure throughout the Middle East would be targeted.

According to Iran’s Ministry of Energy, the country currently operates about 200 large-scale power plants, of which Shohadaye Pakdasht Power Plant, also known as Damavand Power Plant, in the Pakdasht area, on the outskirts of Tehran, is the largest facility with a capacity of more than 2,800 MW.

According to experts, Mr. Trump’s announcement does not mean that the war in Iran has ended, but it has contributed to neutralizing the risk of serious disaster for Iran as well as the entire Gulf region if an energy war breaks out.

If Mr. Trump’s threat is fulfilled, Iran will face widespread power outages, directly affecting hospitals, water treatment facilities and food supply chains, causing a humanitarian disaster in the country.

“A power cut means cutting off the lifeline, affecting everything from gasoline, banks, clean water, healthcare, mobile phones, cold storage, to life-sustaining equipment such as ventilators or dialysis machines,” Golshan Fathi, an activist in Tehran, wrote on social networks.

Mohsen Borhani, a lawyer in Tehran, noted that an attack on Iran’s power grid would be counterproductive by making people’s lives miserable.

“There will be more people who will side with the government to protect the country”, thereby making the US-Israeli effort to call on the Iranian public to stand up to change the government will become even more difficult.

Damavand power plant currently supplies more than 30% of electricity to Tehran province. If Damavand is attacked, this could cause great chaos in the Iranian capital, not only for the government but also for the more than 10 million people living here.

“Attacking our infrastructure, including electricity and water infrastructure, means indirectly killing thousands of innocent people lying in hospital beds,” Hossein Kermanpour, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Health, wrote.

Iran currently has almost no adequate air defense capabilities to protect power plants from the risk of attack, but they have warned that if the US carries out the threat as in Mr. Trump’s ultimatum, the entire Gulf region will also suffer the consequences.

Iranian Parliament Chairman Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf affirmed that if the country’s power plants were attacked, they would destroy “critical infrastructure, energy and oil plants” throughout the Gulf region “to an irreversible extent”.

In addition, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also warned that the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely closed” if the national power grid was attacked and would not open until Iran’s power plants were rebuilt.

Iran has threatened to attack energy infrastructure in Gulf countries if its own facilities are attacked. News agency More close to the IRGC published a map showing power plants in the region, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, with the message: “Prepare to say goodbye to electricity!”.

Experts fear that an attack on Iran’s power grid could spark a disastrous energy war with its Gulf neighbors, where per capita electricity consumption is five times higher than Iran’s.

Electricity helps these flashy desert cities sustain life. This is also the energy source that operates desalination plants that provide 100% of drinking water for millions of people in Bahrain and Qatar, 80% of drinking water needs in the UAE and 50% in Saudi Arabia. Without electricity, these vital desalination plants cannot operate.

Ruhollah, a 35-year-old resident of Tehran, said his family is closely following the news and hopes that threats of retaliation from Iranian officials will cause Arab countries to pressure Mr. Trump to make concessions.

“The way I see it, everyone is extremely worried,” Ruhollah said. “We are waiting to see what will happen to us in the coming hours. Everyone will suffer, we will lose electricity, and the Arabs will lose both electricity and water.”

Ross Harrison, senior expert at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington, commented that President Trump’s threat shows that he is facing “extremely limited options in his efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz”.

“Unless they completely eliminate Iran’s ability to respond, using only military measures to open the strait will hardly bring about the expected effect,” he said. “Ships will not pass through and insurance companies will not be foolish enough to provide services to them as long as the conflict continues.”

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an expert at the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House research institute, based in London, said it is “unlikely” that the pressure Mr. Trump is trying to create can make Iran submit.

“Threats are unlikely to have any impact and Iran will in fact continue to seek to increase the cost because, in their view, that is the only way to get the US and even Israel to stop targeting them after the current conflict ends,” Tabrizi said.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on March 22 that Washington may have to escalate its campaign against Iran to cool the situation in the Middle East. However, according to expert Harrison, after three weeks of fighting, Washington should now look for a possible way out to end the fighting, instead of continuing to “escalate tensions”.

Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi, head of the Iranian army’s unified combat command, announced on March 22 that the orientation of the armed forces had “shifted from defense to attack” and “tactics on the battlefield” were also adjusted accordingly, news agency Fars reported.

“The outcome of the war depends on the will of both sides. In Iran, we have a united determination among the people, soldiers and leadership to continue until the opponent is punished, damages are compensated and future deterrence is guaranteed,” Aliabadi said.

In today’s announcement, Mr. Trump said “extensive, detailed and constructive” negotiations with Iran have been conducted over the past two days and will continue this week. It is unclear what agreement the two sides have reached to help Mr. Trump cancel the 48-hour ultimatum with Tehran.