Donald Trump threatens to leave NATO: Is that even possible?

Now, after that European NATO states do not want to fight alongside the USA against Iran, Trump’s anger only increases. He has criticized Spain, Great Britain, France and Germany for their reluctance to get involved in the war or to liberate the Strait of Hormuz. In his speech on Wednesday night, however, there was no mention of leaving NATO.

• Can Trump single-handedly simply get the US out of NATO?

It’s not that simple. A few years ago, when Trump railed against NATO, the US Congress applied the emergency brake. Both the Senate and the House of Representatives want to continue to firmly anchor the USA in the most powerful defense alliance in the world.

That’s why Congress passed a law in December 2023 that prohibits the president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without the approval of a two-thirds majority in the Senate or a resolution of Congress. It is therefore largely impossible for the president to go it alone – an attempt to go it alone would probably get Trump impeached. The plan to remove the USA from NATO does not currently have a majority in any of the parties in the USA. So Trump’s threats are hot air.

Yes – Article 13 of the NATO Treaty of 1949 states: “After twenty years of validity of the treaty, any contracting state may withdraw from the relationship one year after declaring its termination.” A notice period of one year is required and no justification is necessary.

This is different from the European Union – where there was initially no possibility of leaving before the British left. Brexit was only possible after years of negotiations.

Never before, none of the 32 member states wanted to leave the alliance again. What did happen, however, were resignations from their military structure. This means that several states remained NATO members, but at times did not want to subordinate their troops to NATO’s command structures. They all later reversed the step. The most famous example of this is France, whose army left the command structure in 1966. It was not until 2009 under President Nicolas Sarkozy that France returned to military structures.

That is quite possible. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also told Fox News: “I think that, unfortunately, there is no doubt that once this conflict is over, we will have to re-examine this relationship and the value of NATO for our country.” In concrete terms, this could mean that the USA wants to significantly reduce the number of its troops in Western Europe – these plans have been on the table for years. However, this has not yet been implemented and there are no signs of it either.

That too nuclear shield of the USA could be withdrawn from Europe, which makes the Europeans very excited. Without the USA, the Europeans would initially have no pan-European nuclear defense option. Although France and Great Britain have nuclear weapons, they are not integrated into a European NATO nuclear shield.

Any reduction in the number of US soldiers stationed in Europe would hurt Europe. However, the facts speak a different language than Trump’s withdrawal threats: In December, the US Congress legislated that the number of US soldiers stationed in Europe must not fall below 76,000. The number is currently between 80,000 and 100,000 – depending on rotations.

What is true is that the US no longer sees Russia as its main enemy. Rather, Trump constantly insists that it is Europe’s responsibility to deter Russia and protect Ukraine. At the same time, this also means that the USA continues to rely heavily on NATO in order to keep its back clear with regard to its actual priorities: the Asia-Pacific region, i.e. China.

In the current situation, especially on our partner Türkiye. The US military bases in Turkey are immensely important for the US – for all operations in the Middle East. And most US bases in Europe would also be a devastating loss for the US when it comes to its own defense.

NATO Europe needs its own clear strategy that aims to assume significantly more responsibility for its own defense. This has been clear at least since Trump threatened to take over Greenland – i.e. wanted to attack NATO partner Denmark. There are chances for Europe to achieve this within the military alliance. The key forces in the US defense establishment and in Congress have no interest in the collapse or US withdrawal from NATO. Only one thing would be fatal: to underestimate Donald Trump’s unpredictability and hope that the situation in NATO will calm down again after his departure.