Elections in Peru: fear grows that a close result will prevent the winner from being determined and trigger a conflict

“If the result does not have a difference of at least a point and a half—and each point is 250,000 votes—this is going to get very complicated,” he tells Clarion Hernán Chaparro, an influential public opinion specialist from the University of Lima.

Although in Peru it is prohibited to publish polls days before the vote, the analyzes circulating among diplomats and the press confirm the parity between the two applicantsbut even with a slight difference of a few tenths in favor of Sánchez. Fujimori, hours ago, possibly aware of this data, avoided committing to recognize the results“Let’s see,” he said.

“Keiko’s comment it’s worrying…many people wonder what is going to happen, If they are going to start challenging table after tablewith the background that that would imply,” Chaparro tells Clarion.

An important ally of Fujimori, the former mayor of Lima and former presidential candidate Rafael Lopez Aliagahas also raised the possibility of fraud.

This week he described the National Office of Electoral Processes and the National Elections Jury “as a disgrace.” López Aliaga, from the Popular Renewal party—one of the 35 candidates in the first round—insists that “they stole his votes” to avoid reaching the runoff, but he has not provided evidence, only the claim that the entire process should be annulled.

One fact to observe is that, while the opposition and the Fuerza Popular allies of Fujimori fuel the notion of possible manipulation, Sánchez—surely aware of his slight advantage— has distanced itself from those complaintswhich he describes as irresponsible and seeking to “instill fear and fear in the face of a possible political change.”

For analysts, that background noise generates a dangerous climate of unpredictability and conspiracy. It happens in a very complicated scenario. These specialists rule out that the election is limited to an ideological dispute between left or right. Chaparro emphasizes, however, that what exists is a clash between two worlds: that of the city and that of the mountains, with populations as if from two countries that do not love each other and where it weighs significantly “a very racist culture.”

“In principle, what is experienced is a wear and tear of the entire political system. People’s disappointment is not so much because they voted for some and then for others, but none comply; It is also because there is corruption in the center, the left or the right: corruption in the case of Fujimori, also corruption with the former coup president allied with Sánchez, and in the center, corruption with former president Vizcarra, in prison. As you know, youAll our former presidents are in jail“he explains.

It highlights the power of that other serious cultural dimension that influences the mood of the electorate. “In the mountains, support for Sánchez has not been the same as that which Castillo had in 2021, when he won in the second round, but it’s strong. It happens beyond ideology, because this is a very racist country, deeply racist. That exclusive view is much more on the table today. And, with all the repression that occurred in 2022 and 2023, the mountains in general has deepened its collective identity“.

Sánchez warns about this, and that is why the use of symbolseven the enormous white hat he wears and that It was a characteristic of Castillo and is common in the deep interior.

The surveys that are distributed privately and to which you have had access Clarion mark those differences. Lima gives Keiko a voting intention of 54.8% against 30.2% of his rivalsimilar to behavior in other large cities. But in the rural disaggregated reverse that result: Sánchez leads with 58.7% against 25.5%.

Regarding blank or null votes, Chaparro is very cautious. He maintains that there is a strong distrust in “politicians who say one thing and do another” in a blatant manner. “For example, in the debate, Keiko promised to create 20,000 scholarships that are used to promote university education, but his own Fuerza Popular bench, a month ago, just voted to reduce those scholarships. And I can give you 15 examples like that of all the forces.”

If the vote cast is taken into account – that is, the one that includes the choice of the candidates, but also the blank or null vote -, “Keiko and Sánchez together have around 20%, therefore, there are 80% who did not vote for them“he says. Furthermore, an enormously influential journalist like César Hildebrandt—a kind of Jorge Lanata in this country—and an important centrist politician, Jorge Nieto, They publicly invited people to vote null. “You hear that because there are many people who He doesn’t love either of them.”

This analyst highlights other issues that influence. Sánchez has put together a front in the situation that is nothing more than “a collection of different currents“, which opens a challenge forward. On Keiko’s side, she states that, in addition to the anti-Fujimorism that persecutes her, “a antikeikismo. Because your bench, in these five years, He managed Congress, he has concentrated a lot of power, he has changed half of the Constitutionhas built a parliamentary dictatorship… and I think people notice that.”