Two large earthquakes shook Venezuela Wednesday afternoon. The movements, which occurred just 39 seconds apart, reached magnitudes of 7,2 y 7,5 and they had their epicenter in the areas of Yaracuy and Yumare. Until the night of Thursday the 25th, there had been reports 188 dead and 1,520 injured although authorities warn that the number of victims could increase in the coming hours.
Videos published on social networks show collapsed residential towers in the Capital, Caracas. While in La Guaira, according to the main humanitarian agency of the United Nations, more than 100 buildings were destroyed.
As part of the first measures to face the emergency, Rodríguez announced the creation of a fund 200 million dollars intended to care for the victims and finance the initial reconstruction work.
The response also began to come from abroad. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced that he has instructed his government agencies to act “quickly” to attend Venezuela. Jeremy Lewin, a State Department official, reported that Washington a disaster assistance team has already been mobilized and a task force to coordinate the dispatch of search and rescue teams, medical supplies, humanitarian aid and other resources during the first days after the disaster.
The magnitude of the emergency could be much greater than what the preliminary balances reflect. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that there is a 42% probability that the number of deaths will be between 10,000 and 100,000 people.
Beyond the first announcements and international aid, the emergency represents the greatest challenge that the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez has faced so far. The speed with which it manages to mobilize resources, coordinate assistance and respond to the needs of the population could become not only a test of management, but also of governance.
A State put to the test
Venezuela is a nation rich in oil, but it has been mired in a deep economic crisis for more than a decade that has deteriorated a good part of its productive apparatus and its institutions. The catastrophe also arrives at a key moment in its history: just six months after the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the arrival to power of Delcy Rodrígueza twist that the newspaper “The New York Times” described as the country’s transition from an adversary of the United States to a kind of “Satellite State”.
For Venezuelan political scientist José Vicente Carrasquero, the tragedy has revealed the limitations of the state apparatus to respond to an emergency of this magnitude. In his opinion, the deterioration of institutions during the years of Chavismo explains a good part of the difficulties that the government faces today.
“This is part of what has been the dismantling of the State with the Chavista regime. “A dismantled State has no capacity to respond.”he told El Comercio.
Along these lines, he considered that the announcement of a 200 million dollar fund constitutes more of a political message than an immediate solution. “You don’t do anything with money; you do it with equipment. Okay, here are the 200 million, but How long does it take you to buy equipment and bring equipment?”held.
Carrasquero added that the response will depend largely on the support that comes from abroad. “We are going to depend a lot on international aid”he stated, warning that Venezuelan rescue teams lack the necessary resources to face a tragedy of this magnitude.
Washington, the decisive actor
Maibort Petit, journalist and researcher specialized in Venezuelan politics, agrees that the government’s ability to manage the emergency will mark a turning point for the Rodríguez administration. However, he considers that the role played by the United States will be decisive in that process.
“If the United States helps Delcy manage this crisis, she can earn profits from that. But if it is them alone, with external aid, the situation will be different”he explained.
The expert recalled that the northern country has great interest in Venezuela and is not going to abandon it.
“The United States is interested in Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold. That’s why will be directly involved in the management of this crisisbecause it knows the limitations that the government has to face it alone.”
Petit recalled that Chavismo has already faced other high-impact emergencies, such as the Vargas tragedy in 1999 and the Cariaco earthquake in 2018, episodes in which, as he indicated, the state response was insufficient. On this occasion, he considers that the difference lies in the international support that the Executive could receive.
The analyst points out, however, that the fundamental actor in either of these two scenarios is the United States. “Washington is practically protecting “This process and many decisions are no longer made in Caracas, but in Washington,” he said.
In this scenario, the opposition seems to have little room for maneuver. According to Petit, opposition groups do not have the economic or logistical capacity to intervene decisively in addressing the emergency, so the role will fall almost entirely on the interim government and its international allies.
In his opinion, the government faces two clearly differentiated scenarios. “If it can manage this crisis efficiently, it can consolidate. But if not, it will have more problems”he concludes.
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