Pitfalls of probability: High jackpot beckons

What amount is involved?

After 31 draws without a main prize, the winnings in the first tier have risen to 92.61 million euros. However, the legally set upper limit of 50 million euros has been reached for 14 draws. This means: If the jackpot is won in the drawing on Wednesday, more than 42 million euros would immediately be available for the next winner of the following drawing, as a spokesman for Westlotto in Münster explains. The first prize category was last cracked on March 25th. At that time, 44.2 million euros went to Bavaria.

The rules for the jackpot in the classic lottery were changed at the end of 2023: the upper limit was raised from 45 to 50 million euros, and the payout when the upper limit was reached was abolished. Until then, after reaching 45 million euros, the jackpot could be won with only six correct numbers, but without the correct super number (prize category 2).

What is different from the Eurojackpot?

In the European lottery Eurojackpot, every additional euro collected goes into the 2nd prize category after the upper limit of 120 million has been reached. So a second jackpot is formed there.

The probability of winning in both lotteries for the first prize category is 1:140 million.

Could the current boom create new gambling addicts?

Probably not. “Every game of chance has a risk,” says Verena Küpperbusch, head of the North Rhine-Westphalia State Office for Gambling Addiction in Bielefeld. With the classic lottery, however, it is comparatively low. “That’s due to the time factor. Sports betting can take place live. And around the clock. It happens in quick succession at high speed. That doesn’t happen with the classic lottery. This is equalized by the Saturday/Wednesday rhythm.”

18.3 percent of the population plays the lottery. “There are quite a few of them, but only a few of them have problematic gambling behavior,” says Küpperbusch.

Steffen Otterbach, who heads the gambling research center at the University of Hohenheim in Baden-Württemberg, also sees a significantly higher risk potential with virtual machines and live sports betting as well as with illegal gaming offers.

According to the addiction experts, it is not a problem that significantly more people play the lottery when the jackpot is well filled. “High winning amounts naturally offer extremely strong incentives,” says Otterbach. A study on the Spanish Christmas lottery shows that demand also increases when a winner is drawn in the relevant region.

Providers have created special offers for typical jackpot players, where the ticket only takes part in the drawings when the jackpot amount reaches a certain level.

Does it even make sense to play right now?

Otterbach points out a paradox: “The probability of winning a large jackpot for yourself actually decreases when more people take part in a raffle.” People tend to have a distorted perception of probabilities. They overestimated very small probabilities, while medium and high probabilities tended to be underestimated.

Science likes to use vivid comparisons to illustrate extremely low probabilities such as winning the lottery: No one would claim that it is likely to find the only red blade of grass on a football field with around 140 million green blades while blindfolded. Every lottery player would probably admit that their own hand would be more likely to get hold of one of the green stalks. Hitting the jackpot in the classic lottery or Eurojackpot is just as (un)probable as blindly grabbing the red straw.

More people play the lottery in economically tense times?

Yes, studies from several countries show that. “After the financial crisis in Iceland, people with money worries bought lottery tickets significantly more often than people without financial problems,” says Otterbach. “A similar connection between rising unemployment and higher lottery sales has also been found in the United States in the past.” Behind this there is probably the hope of being able to escape the financial bottleneck with a profit.

What role does personal income play?

When playing the lottery, not only the overall economic situation plays a role, but also the personal one. People with lower incomes and less education spend more on the lottery relative to their income than people with higher incomes, says Otterbach. Lower-income groups also contribute more to the state revenue from lottery games. A possible psychological explanation is that lotteries promise one of the few opportunities for sudden increases in wealth for lower-income people.

What’s the appeal of dream home raffles?

Sometimes a lottery is not about money, but a property is the main prize. Does our brain then react differently? “I am not aware of any scientific study on this specific format, i.e. house instead of cash,” says Otterbach. However, it seems plausible to him that people can imagine a house much better and more concretely than an abstract sum of money in an account. “And this is exactly what makes a win seem closer and more likely than it actually is,” says the researcher.

“People tend to judge the likelihood of events based on how easily suitable examples come to mind, which can lead to systematic errors in judgment.” That’s why lotteries are often advertised: with the stories of individual winners. By highlighting individual prizes and winners, the impression is created that winning is easier to achieve than the actual chances suggest, explains Otterbach.