Around two and a half weeks before the election for the Berlin House of Representatives, the CDU is slightly ahead in an election survey by the polling institute Infratest dimap – but three parties follow closely behind. According to the representative survey commissioned by the RBB, the CDU would get around 21 percent.
The left would therefore reach 19 percent. The Greens and the AfD are tied at 18 percent each. Behind them are the SPD with 11 and the BSW with 4 percent.
This means that two-party alliances are not possible. Coalitions made up of the CDU, the Greens and the SPD or with the Left, the Greens and the SPD would be mathematically conceivable. A CDU/SPD coalition is currently in power.
Not an outstanding top candidate
When asked which top candidate the respondents would most like to appoint as Governing Mayor in a direct election, no candidate was really convincing in the survey. 54 percent of those surveyed said they could not answer this question or did not provide any information.
CDU top candidate Stefan Evers and left-wing politician Elif Eralp each got 13 percent. Steffen Krach from the SPD received nine percent, AfD top candidate Kristin Brinker seven percent and the Green top candidate Werner Graf four percent.
Top topic: rent
The most important topic for those surveyed was the housing market in the city – including high rental costs and a lack of apartments. 32 percent of those surveyed stated “housing/rents” as the most pressing political problem. According to the RBB, other topics followed far behind.
Traffic and mobility problems were most important for eight percent of those surveyed. The topics relating to “refugees/immigration” and “internal security/crime” came in at ten and nine percent respectively.
Around 1,300 people were surveyed at the end of August
A total of 1,279 people were interviewed by telephone and online between August 27th and 31st for the survey. A new state parliament will be elected in Berlin on September 20th.
Election surveys are generally subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.