Vance started a campaign? In the US, a shift away from Trump is recognized

The news in brief:

• After Vance’s post defeat – in the US they are discussing whether he has already started the presidential campaign.
• The assessment is that Vance will now try to differentiate himself from Trump’s positions.
• At the center of things: moving away from the war in Iran and getting closer to the disillusioned voters.
• As the campaign progresses, it is likely that Israel will continue to be the focus of criticism.
  

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The heavy defeat of the Republicans in the midterm elections in the United States is already raising questions about the future of the party and the identity of the candidate who will lead it in the presidential elections in 2028. The unusual statement yesterday (Wednesday) by Vice President JD Vance following the loss, in which he criticized the war in Iran and called for a change in relations with Israel, is now interpreted in the American media as much more than an attempt to explain the election results.

Some of the most prominent media outlets in the United States are already recognizing the beginning of a political move designed to separate Vance from Donald Trump’s decisions, for now without directly confronting the president. According to a series of interpretations and publications, the vice president is trying to position himself as a follower of Trump’s MAGA movement, but also as someone capable of correcting the mistakes that led to the Republican defeat and expanding the separatist movement that Trump promised, but does not exist.

The most significant report came from Fox News, where it was announced that Vance is working to forge a new political alliance with disillusioned Trump voters ahead of the 2028 election. A source in the US administration told the network that the messages presented by Vance after the election are aimed at the “New Right”, a coalition of Republicans who identify with the original principles of the “America First” movement.

These are voters who support avoiding foreign wars, reducing the cost of living and a strict immigration policy, but feel that Trump has moved away from some of his promises, especially in the field of foreign policy.

According to the same source, many of these voters believe that the president identifies too much with Israel. At least for some, the war in Iran is directly related to Israel’s influence in the Middle East and the relationship between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But Fox News emphasizes that it is not necessarily an attempt to shake off Trump. The source who spoke with the network explained that Vance is not seeking to follow in the footsteps of former Vice President Mike Pence, who confronted Trump following the events of January 6, 2021. Instead, he is trying to appeal to voters who continue to support Trump, but feel betrayed by his foreign policy decisions.

The message that Vance wants to convey to them, according to the source, is simple: “Vance is our man.”

In the “Atlantic” magazine they presented an even more decisive interpretation. Under the headline “Vance 2028 is here”, the magazine described the vice president’s conduct as the beginning of a move towards the race for the White House.

According to the interpretation, Vance is trying to offer a revised version of Trumpism, one that would preserve the ideological principles of the movement but distance itself from the decisions that have become a political burden for Republicans.

The war in Iran and relations with Israel occupy a central place in this process. Vance can use them to present himself as faithful to Trump’s original promise to avoid foreign wars, without placing full responsibility for the results on the president himself.

The Atlantic also pointed to the possibility that this line would allow Vance to differentiate himself from other senior administration officials, including Defense Secretary Marco Rubio, who is also considered a possible presidential candidate in 2028.

The Washington Post also identified a broader political meaning in the vice president’s statement. The newspaper emphasized that while Trump and his people tried to explain the defeat through the weakness of Republican candidates, Vance chose to draw attention to the decisions made in the administration itself.

In Axios they described the things as a certain distancing of Vance from the president, precisely at the point in time when the next presidential election campaign actually begins. Axios wrote that Vance is starting to build a more independent political position for himself, without declaring an open confrontation with Trump.

Reuters also treated the statement as a step that may mark the beginning of Vance’s positioning towards 2028. The Associated Press mentioned that the vice president had previously said that he would decide on his political future after the midterm elections, which gives his current statements additional meaning.

But not all commentators on the American right accept Vance’s attempt to explain the defeat by means of the war in Iran. A scathing opinion piece published in the New York Post and featured in the main headline claimed that the vice president is trying to rewrite the reasons for the Republican loss, thereby saving his political future.

According to the article, the war in Iran did contribute to the defeat, but was not the main cause of it. The writer pointed to the NBC polls, according to which only 4% of voters defined foreign policy as the most important issue for them, while the cost of living and corruption were the top priorities.

The survey also found that 74% of voters saw the war as a significant factor in their decision, but higher rates attributed importance to the cost of living and corruption.

The New York Post wrote that Vance “dropped the first bombshell” on the campaign trail, and argued that Vance cannot attack Trump’s tariff policy because it is in line with his economic worldview. Nor can he criticize the president directly without jeopardizing the possibility that Trump will endorse him as the next Republican nominee.

Therefore, according to the interpretation, Vance chose to direct the fire towards the war in Iran and towards the relationship with Israel. The article claims that the vice president is actually implying that Israel pushed Trump to start the war, and that the relationship with Israel has become a political burden for the Republicans.

The criticism even went so far as to accuse Vance of trying to appeal to extremist and anti-Semitic elements in the American right, by presenting Israel as responsible for the administration’s failures.

The possibility that Vance is trying to distance himself from Trump takes on special significance in view of his position in the Republican Party. For the past two years, Vance has generally been careful to align with the messages of the White House, but on the Iran issue, certain differences between him and the president have been revealed, and he is constantly seen as someone who is in favor of ending the war, in contrast to Trump. Trump himself admitted earlier this year that his deputy was “maybe less enthusiastic” about the possibility of attacking Iran in the first place.

At this point it cannot be said that Vance has begun the process of “defection” or “rebellion” against Trump. Trump himself admitted after Vance’s words that the war in Iran contributed to the defeat in the elections, although he clarified that he does not regret the decision to go to war.

It already seems that the battle for Trump’s succession will begin very soon, perhaps sooner than expected. The fact that many are already calling Trump a “lame duck” following the defeat and loss of control in both houses of Congress, may accelerate the discourse on the day after. On the other hand, it is likely that Trump will act to prevent this in order to maintain the continuation of his tenure in the White House.

Either way, as Vance’s campaign progresses – it is not impossible that it will come at the expense of support for Israel.