Colonel Markus Reisner, Ukraine expert for the Austrian Armed Forces, believes the Ukrainians’ partial successes are overestimated.
According to experts, Ukraine’s partial successes in its counteroffensive against the Russian military are being overestimated.
“Individual Russian defense lines are being overcome with great losses, but so far there has never been a real breach of the dam,” said the Austrian Army’s Ukraine expert, Colonel Markus Reisner the German Press Agency.
“The alarm bells should be ringing that after 117 days of counter-offensive no operational breakthrough has been achieved.”
Ukraine receives too little military equipment
Overall, Ukraine receives too little military equipment, including to defend itself against Russian air strikes in the hinterland.
“Only with increased air defense could hits on critical infrastructure be minimized.” If the country’s electricity supply were to suffer serious damage again, the backbone of arms production would also be broken.
“Actually, four to five fully loaded freight trains with war material should roll into Ukraine every week,” said Reisner. While the USA is very aware of the difficult situation, the EU’s perception of what is happening is inappropriate. “Europe is about to miss the moment when we no longer have it under control and the situation tips in favor of the Russians,” said the colonel.
Ukraine’s allies have only partially fulfilled their promises regarding military equipment. The effectiveness of the Leopard 2 tank, for example, is also less than expected. Of the approximately 90 tanks of this type delivered, at least a third were destroyed or damaged.
Horrifyingly high losses on both sides
Overall, the losses on both sides were shockingly high. The last one from the New York Times Reisner considers the figures given by US military circles of around 160,000 fallen and 140,000 wounded Russians to be credible.
On the Ukrainian side, losses were estimated at 80,000 dead and 120,000 injured. On top of that, Kiev lost 4,500 military vehicles and Moscow lost around 12,300, said the expert, referring to the independent platform Oryx, which tries to record every vehicle through photos.
Wagner fighters deployed to Bakhmut in Ukraine
According to British intelligence experts, the fighters from the Wagner mercenary force who have returned to Ukraine will be deployed around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. This was suggested by several reports, according to the Defense Ministry’s daily intelligence report in London on Friday.
In Bakhmut, Wagner had achieved success for the Russian invasion troops in battles with heavy losses in May. “Your experience is likely to be particularly sought after in this sector. Many will be familiar with the current front line, having fought there last winter,” the statement said.
The Wagner private army has been considered leaderless since the crash of a plane carrying founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and commanders in August. The group had long fought alongside regular Russian units in Moscow’s war of aggression against Ukraine. After withdrawing his troops from Ukraine, Prigozhin attempted an uprising against the Russian military leadership, which failed. Parts of the Wagner Army then moved to Belarus.
The exact status of the Wagner fighters is unclear, the British report said. However, it is likely that they were integrated into parts of the official Russian army or other private armies.
Andrei Troschew former commander of the Wagner mercenaries, is now working for the Russian Ministry of Defense and is considered Prigozhin’s successor.
Russian bloggers hide the reality at the front
According to US experts, Russian military bloggers practice self-censorship to a large extent and only publish a small part of their findings on the course of the war of aggression against Ukraine.
Some particularly critical bloggers admitted that they only revealed 5 to 15 percent of their information from the front, writes the Washington-based Institute for War Studies (ISW) in its report on Thursday.
Overall, there appears to be broader self-censorship on the Russian side about the tactical realities on certain sectors of the front. This suggests that Russian sources deliberately limited their coverage of tactical actions, particularly those with an unfavorable outcome for Russia.
On September 25, a blogger partially deleted a post about the successes of the Ukrainian army near Novoprokopivka in the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia.
According to ISW, another reported that Russian commanders routinely concealed complaints and existing problems, for example with communications, drones, tires or the pay of fighters.
Another commander complained about the inefficient flow of information from the Russian front to decision-makers, according to a blogger.
One blogger commented that certain information should not be shared and that the ability to remain silent at the right moment is an important quality. Censorship or self-censorship among Russian military bloggers also affects the ability of the ISW and the West to report on Russia’s operations, the institute wrote.