There will be 40 days of conflict in the heart of Europe, and nothing suggests that things will alter dramatically. The explosions and sirens will continue to blare throughout Ukraine. Threats of negotiation and ceasefire will be made. Some refugees may attempt to return to the homes they abandoned. According to British and American intelligence reports, Russia will continue with its plans.
In one way or another, Vladimir Putin, who appears to be making choices more and more alone, even with his top military leaders, will do everything it takes to crush this brave nation.
The Russians appear to be retreating in order to reconsider their invasion strategy, as seen by troop regroupings in Georgia and Belarus. The Ukrainians, whose morale is at an all-time high, believe they have withstood far more than was necessary. Even they are startled by themselves.
Last Friday, President Volodimir Zelensky released a new patriotic propaganda video in which he challenged his Kremlin foe with the following game: “You thought five days would be enough for you, but it’s been 36 and we’re still resisting.”
The Ukrainians, whose morale is at an all-time high, believe they have withstood far more than was necessary. Rodrigo Abdo/Associated Press
Propaganda in public places
That is correct: even in the most hard-hit areas of the country, the concept of resistance is absolute and pervasive. There isn’t a single advertisement banner on the street that doesn’t mention the conflict.
The drawing of a woman combed with blue and yellow flowers, observed by Clarion envoys in the streets of Kiev, is a disturbing one. She has a handgun in her hand and is aiming it at a kneeling man’s mouth. Putin is that man, and the tale goes, “We have not been trodden on, and we will not allow you to step on us.” Ukraine will fight back.”
“We have not been trodden on, and we will not allow you to step on us.” The poster reads, “Ukraine will resist.” Sent photo
Those who fight and those who don’t, the sunk and the saved, as Primo Levi would say, everyone in the streets of any city sees this form of propaganda and it inflates nationalism.
There is no opposition to Zelenski. Before the war, he was a controversial right-wing populist. He is a charismatic leader with a current image of over 90% positivity. Outside of Donbass and Crimea, there are no pro-Russians, and the unifying cry is “Fuck you, Russian ship,” a term that sprang from an incident in the Black Sea and was made into a statement by the entire population of this country.
The fights
Meanwhile, the fighting continues, with varying degrees of severity depending on the locale. The bombing on the outskirts of Kiev has resumed in the last 24 hours, but it is clear that the Russians are fleeing their positions.
On the outskirts of Kiev, the hand of a Russian soldier killed in action. Rodrigo Abdo/Associated Press
Irpin, the horrific city 30 kilometers from the capital, is the clearest example of this condition. The entire world watched as the city’s residents escaped the Russian siege in early March. They rushed with their suitcases on wheels, the invading army’s fires thundering in the backdrop.
Instead, Irpin was back in Ukraine this week. It’s a magnificent triumph. According to the earliest journalistic accounts, the destruction was complete, and the death toll may reveal an unanticipated grim surprise.
Nonetheless, Irpin’s comeback serves as a metaphor for what is going on in Kyiv.
The Russians withdrew. Clarion was just a few days ago. He saw how the Ukrainian army was checking territory in an offensive position, pushing the adversaries to the east of the country, off the front lines of the battle.
The Russian forces withdrew to Chernobyl, and they are about to go for the site of the radioactive disaster that prompted his invasion on the nuclear plant area.
Choosing the site of the world’s biggest nuclear disaster to create a fortified position could be as bad as shooting yourself in the foot. Analysts saw it as an example of bizarre improvisation and a poorly planned military mission.
With Kyiv feeling more at ease, a new phenomena emerged: many Kevites who fled the city in early March are now attempting to return. There are new traffic jams on the highways and lines at the railway station, not to flee, but to return to their homes and restart a suspended life.
The south has been decimated.
The Russians’ powerlessness or ineffectiveness in Kiev is contrasted in the country’s south and east. The Russians are attempting to establish new circuit regulations in the occupied territory, using houses that were left empty and standing to shelter their forces, restricting civilian movement, and detaining some inhabitants and activists.
On Thursday, March 31, 2022, a checkpoint outside of Kiev, Ukraine. Rodrigo Abd/AP Photo
They’re also compelling businesses and businesspeople on busy sites to utilize the ruble as their official currency. The Ukrainians fought tooth and nail to keep the capital, but at the cost of giving up that geographical perimeter, which stretches from Crimea in the south to Donbas in the north, and which now appears to be governed by Moscow as a “Eastern Ukraine.”
Mariupol is the equivalent of Aleppo or Sarajevo. It is a sign of annihilation. It is well known that Russia chose to sacrifice this city rather than shooting at Odessa, the southern gem, whose beaches are now littered with anti-personnel mines.
Mariupol, on the other hand, is a complete human drama. This week, Russia restricted humanitarian passages once more. It also targeted the offices of the International Red Cross and the headquarters of the EU team sent to observe the humanitarian disaster.
Mairupol is the equivalent of Aleppo or Sarajevo. It is a sign of annihilation. Rodrigo Abd/AP Photo
The concept of “war crime” is pervasive in that shattered city, and it is there that high-level Western diplomacy is hunting for evidence to prosecute Putin in international courts.
This week marks the 40th anniversary of the conflict, and the numbers speak for themselves: the greatest exodus in Europe since WWII, with more than 4 million refugees; Russian deaths estimated to be between 7,000 and 15,000, depending to the source.
Since the conflicts began, nearly 400 youngsters have been exposed to fire, with 153 killed and 245 injured. However, data collection activity is still ongoing around the country. Mariupol, Kyiv, Chernikov, and Lugansk, in particular. Only in Maripol has there been mention of 210 children being murdered by the bombardment, albeit this number is unofficially confirmed because Russia has not permitted them to access the city till now.
On a military level, after a month of war, the false notion of Russian military superiority has finally been exposed. Russia presented impromptu militias that were ill-equipped and armed with outdated weapons.
Their battle tanks turned out to be a deadly trap for the Russians. The Ukrainians had had enough of destroying tanks with bazookas and computer-controlled missiles. The same Ukrainian fighters record images and films every time they liquidate a tank, which are widely shared on social media.
The Ukrainians had grown tired of using bazookas and rockets to kill tanks. AFP photo
Russia could not do so by land. They were up against a brave, contemporary militia that appeared to be up to the task. It does, however, have cruise missiles and planes.
If Putin made the ultimate decision, as he did with Mariupol, to attack Kiev by air, there would be nothing left to resist.
He hasn’t done so yet, either out of “prudence” or for reasons that merit further investigation. Finally, it remains to be seen what this guy, poised and alone, will decide.