If Trump wins, conservative revolution is expected

Not only Democrats, but also conservative critics are warning about a second term for Donald Trump. “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly unavoidable,” wrote Robert Kagan, one of the best-known neoconservative thinkers, in the Washington Post in November. Trump’s former Defense Secretary Mark Esper now fears a collapse of NATO if the former president returns to the White House. Esper also believes troop withdrawals from South Korea or Japan are possible. This would slowly disintegrate the existing world order, he told the television station MSNBC in December.

But American voters seem to care little about such warnings. As controversial as Trump’s first term may have been, people can now compare it to that of Joe Biden: the cost of living under Trump was around 20 percent lower, the number of illegal immigrants at the southern border with Mexico was only a fraction, and the US was not involved in new wars.

It’s about more than good or bad politics

According to surveys, the economy and immigration are currently the most important issues for voters. On both issues, they are much more likely to trust Trump to solve the problems than Biden. At the same time, a large majority of Republican voters are trivializing or dismissing the storm on the Capitol incited by Trump on January 6, 2021. They firmly believe that Biden’s election victory four years ago was fraudulent and that the criminal proceedings against Trump are now politically motivated. In their eyes, Biden is therefore the greatest threat to democracy.

This explains why Trump might win the presidential election if it were held today. In particular, in six of the seven important swing states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina – the 77-year-old is leading by up to 6 percentage points.

But if Trump’s first term doesn’t seem so bad to many Americans in retrospect, why should we worry about a second term? This is the answer from Liz Cheney, former Republican congresswoman and daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney: “I know our country can survive bad politics. But we cannot survive a president who is willing to destroy the Constitution.”

There are many question marks behind Biden’s policies. In many ways, he continued Trump’s protectionist economic and trade policies – especially towards China. His large investment and subsidy programs favor companies that produce in the USA. In addition, his state Corona aid package fueled inflation. At the same time, Biden’s promise of a more humane immigration policy triggered a record wave of migration at the southern border with Mexico.

However, there is no doubt about how Biden feels about the basic democratic and constitutional values ​​of the USA. It is also obvious how much he cares about the Western defense alliance NATO and the global alliances with other democracies. With Trump you can’t be sure. In a second term, this uncertainty will be even greater for three reasons: the Republicans have submitted to him, Trumpism is more organized, and for Trump himself, personal freedom is at stake in the election.

The subjugation of the Republicans

In spring 2016 tweeted The influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham: “If we nominate Trump (as a presidential candidate), we will be destroyed. . . and we will deserve it.” Now he recently said during a joint campaign appearance with Trump: “This is the most qualified man for the office of American president.”

Like Graham, many former Trump critics in the Republican Party have turned into opportunistic supporters. Those who remained true to themselves had to sacrifice their political careers. The most famous example of this is Liz Cheney. She voted for the impeachment of Trump in 2021, after which she took part in the parliamentary investigation into the storming of the Capitol. But in her conservative home state of Wyoming, the congresswoman was from then on considered a traitor. In the midterm elections in fall 2022, she was clearly voted out of office in the Republican primaries.

In the past, anyone who lost a presidential election in the USA usually also lost power in their own party. But Trump’s control over the Republicans grew despite his defeat in 2020. The reason for this is simple: he managed to convince the vast majority of conservatives that he did not lose the election. Anyone who doubts this lie hardly has a political future with the Republicans.

Trumpism is more organized

Eight years ago, Trump launched a conservative revolution. The Republicans were previously the party of free trade and globalization winners. They saw the USA as the leading power of the Western community of values ​​and as a global bulwark of liberal democracy. President George W. Bush advocated a culture of welcome in immigration policy. And in 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney saw Russia as his country’s greatest enemy. Trump, on the other hand, portrayed himself as the protector of the losers of globalization, pursued a protectionist economic policy and questioned the Western defense alliance with NATO.

However, Trump lacked the cadres in his first term in office to implement his policy with ultimate consistency. So he had to rely on proven establishment government personnel. These so-called “adults in the room” are said to have fought Trump’s most radical ideas and curbed his impulses. In 2018, a senior government official even wrote an anonymous op-ed in the New York Times entitled “I am part of the resistance within the Trump administration.” Their goal is to thwart parts of the president’s agenda.

In a second term, Trump will be better prepared for such resistance. On the one hand, he now knows better who he can rely on in Washington. On the other hand, a whole series of conservative think tanks – led by the Heritage Foundation – are working on a plan to “institutionalize Trumpism”. Many former employees of the first Trump administration are working on this “Project 2025”. This is not just about an agenda that a Republican president could implement from day one in office. Conservative staff are already being recruited to bring the bureaucracy in the capital under control in the wake of a large wave of layoffs.

In conflict with the rule of law

In contrast to his first term, Donald Trump is indicted in four criminal cases. After the 2020 presidential election, he tried to overturn his defeat and prevent a peaceful transfer of power. When he left the White House, he took a large number of secret documents with him and hid them. If convicted, Trump could face years in prison. He therefore now also has a private interest in winning the 2024 election in order to stop the proceedings against him and stay in power for as long as possible.

Since the Watergate scandal under Richard Nixon in the 1970s, the Justice Department has enjoyed extensive independence in investigations. Trump and his allies are now thinking loudly about abolishing this separation of powers. In their eyes, the authority has been infiltrated by “radical left-wing ideologues” and urgently needs to be cleaned out. Trump himself also declared last June that he wanted to appoint a “real special investigator” to investigate the “Biden crime family” after returning to the White House.

According to the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution, Trump can only be elected president twice. Nevertheless, the “American Conservative” recently published an op-ed that advocated for a third term for Trump after 2028. The 22nd Amendment is an unnecessary curtailment of democracy, it says. The author represents a hitherto less widespread and questionable opinion. Nevertheless, a fundamental question arises: Who will hold Trump accountable if he breaks the law or the constitution in his second term in office? Usually the means of impeachment is intended for this purpose. But even after Trump’s storm on the Capitol in 2021, Republicans prevented a conviction in the impeachment trial. In your eyes, is there still a red line for Trump?

Ukraine as a litmus test

The good thing, however, is that the worst expectations rarely come true. Especially with such an unpredictable figure like Trump. American institutions will still resist him even after he has consolidated his power. But the West had better prepare for a worst-case scenario.

A first litmus test for Trump’s second term in office is likely to be support for Kiev. The months-long blockage of Ukraine aid in Congress is an example of Trump’s great influence, but possibly also of his flexibility. He has always been skeptical about support for Kiev and described the war as a European affair. In his eyes, Ukraine would have to cede part of its territory to Russia for peace. Accordingly, the right wing of the Republican party in the House of Representatives blocked the new aid money for Kiev amounting to around $60 billion.

But now Republican Speaker Mike Johnson wants to bring the aid package to a vote this week. And Trump has not spoken out categorically against the billions flowing directly to Kiev being formally granted as loans. If the bill passes parliament, there would be hope that Trump will not completely turn the world order upside down in his second term in office.

If not, perhaps his former Defense Secretary Esper might not be entirely wrong after all. Based on his experiences with Trump, he is convinced that as president he would end support for Ukraine. “His next step would be to withdraw us from NATO. Certainly by withdrawing troops from NATO countries. And that could lead to the collapse of the alliance.”