The last 12 months have been the hottest year in the history of measurements.
This one and many heat records have been set during the last year. The 12-month period ending at the end of March was the hottest in the measurement history. The temperature has risen so drastically that it has even aroused wonder in research circles.
During the last year, the average temperature of the earth has been more than 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than before the industrialization period. However, this does not mean that the limit has been crossed permanently.
“When we talk about 1.5 degrees warming, we are talking about the average over a longer period of time,” says the research professor Hannele Korhonen From the Institute of Meteorology.
However, Korhonen notes that the situation is serious. Warming of one and a half degrees is considered the limit for keeping the most serious risks of climate change as small as possible.
“The most important thing is to tackle the causes of global warming. We have to reduce emissions, that’s the number one thing.”
Already 10 record hot months
The EU’s Copernicus service, which monitors climate change, reported last week that this year’s March was the hottest March in the history of measurements and already the tenth consecutive record hot month in a row. March was 1.68 degrees warmer compared to the time before industrialization, i.e. roughly the years 1850–1900.
The 12-month period ending at the end of March was the hottest year in the history of measurements, which was 1.58 degrees warmer compared to pre-industrial times.
in Finland the past winter has been cold compared to the 2000s, but on April 10, Lappeenranta’s Konnunsuo reached a heat record. weather Institute told, that the temperature rose to +20.1 degrees. This was the earliest +20 degree crossing of a calendar year in statistics that have been kept since 1959.
In Germany, on the night before Sunday, April 7, a tropical night was experienced in some places, i.e. a night temperature of over +20 degrees, said the German weather service Deutscher Wetterdienst, or DWD.
One of the individual heat records is from Antarctica and already from March 2022. British newspaper Guardian says that a temperature of 38.5 degrees higher than the long-term average of the time was measured at the Concordia research station in Antarctica.
At the upper limits of climate models
In March, the director of the NASA Goddard Institute of the US space agency Gavin Schmidt evaluate In the journal Nature that the warming is already so drastic that the climate models used by scientists are unable to explain it.
“If the deviation does not level off by August – a reasonable estimate based on previous El Nino phenomena – then the world is in uncharted territory,” writes Schmidt.
Korhonen gloats and points out that Schmidt’s writing is not based on actual climate models, but on statistical analysis.
“He writes a bit ramblingly. Yes, the last year also fits into the range of climate models. However, it is at the upper limits of the range,” says Korhonen.
Reasons there are several reasons for a sudden rise in temperature.
“The El Nino phenomenon is one very clear reason. We also have to remember that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing all the time,” says Korhonen.
The El Nino phenomenon, which warms the South Pacific Ocean, recurs approximately every 2–7 years and affects the entire Earth’s climate. This El Nino is expected to weaken by the end of this year’s summer.
“The progress of warming should be monitored for the next couple of years,” says Korhonen.
If in the years following the fading of El Nino, the global average temperatures still remain exceptionally high, then, according to Korhonen, there may be reason to examine whether the current climate models are also sufficient in a warming climate.
Research circles have speculated that a violent volcanic eruption in Tonga in the Pacific in January 2022 could also be one of the reasons for the sudden rise in temperature. According to Korhonen, it has both warming and cooling effects on the climate.
The intensity of the sun’s radiation varies in cycles of about 11 years, and this may also be one of the reasons behind the record year. However, according to Korhonen, the effect is small.
Reducing emissions is the most essential
Korhonen emphasizes that the most essential thing is to tackle the causes of climate change: emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases must be reduced.
Nature’s carbon sinks – trees and other vegetation – take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. According to Korhonen, artificial removal of carbon dioxide may also be necessary.
According to Korhonen, if the climate continues to warm faster than expected, interest in artificially modifying the climate may arise. This would mean reflecting solar radiation away in the upper atmosphere.
A possible – but theoretical at this point – way would be to imitate powerful volcanic eruptions. Their emissions create small particles in the stratosphere, i.e. at a height of about 20 kilometers, where the particles reflect the sun’s radiation back into space. It is known that in the past very large volcanic eruptions have cooled the Earth’s climate even for more than a year at a time.