In the long term, Europeans cannot rely on America to take responsibility for European security. With Trump everything could be different.
Europe was lucky again: After months of hesitation, the chairman of the US House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, came through and put a vote for a package on the agenda that also includes new military aid for Ukraine. A narrow majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against it, but all Democratic members were in favor – and the proposal passed.
Johnson had previously reassured himself with Donald Trump, who took a surprisingly mild tone towards Ukraine. Trump did say that Europe must do more because Ukraine’s “survival and strength” must be more important to Europe than to America. But both are “also important for us”.
Although the cavalry is not coming to save Ukraine, what is now expected will be enough to at least stabilize the front and make a major Russian offensive less likely.
The Europeans breathe a sigh of relief. But the fundamental problem remains. Ukraine cannot stand alone against Russia. The US is deeply divided over its foreign policy and particularly over the issue of military support for Europe and especially Ukraine. And the Europeans – especially the financially strong Western Europeans – have so far not been able to bring themselves to actually support Ukraine massively with weapons and ammunition. Support does come, but often too little and too late.
Strategic direction
Once again it shows: Europe works when the USA acts as a leading power – when it shapes the strategic direction, leads the way and shows massive commitment, builds the coalition and holds it together.
Left to their own devices, however, the three European middle powers with global reach – France, Great Britain and Germany – are not prepared to decisively confront an aggressive and expansive neo-imperialist Russia. In recent months, everything has pointed to America’s future rejection of aid to Ukraine because Trump blocked it. A Russian victory became a possibility.
But even this dramatic escalation did not lead to the Europeans reacting together with an emergency program. Despite all the warnings and admonitions from the East Central Europeans, the West Europeans remained passive.
The German Chancellor insisted on his no to the Taurus cruise missile and explained that Germany was already doing enough for Ukraine and now others would be asked. The just over 7 billion euros that Berlin had budgeted for military aid for Ukraine in 2024 was not increased. The French president, for his part, presented himself as the biggest supporter of Ukraine, to the delight of East Central Europeans, but that remained rhetoric: In reality, the 3 billion euros that Paris plans to spend in 2024 have not been increased.
Czechs and Estonians as pioneers
It was left to the East Central Europeans – the Czechs and the Estonians – to find urgently needed ammunition for the Ukrainian front on the world market. Funding was only very reluctantly provided by European partners. Despite the prospect of a conceivable Ukrainian defeat, they also did not give away significantly more from their own stocks.
The fact that the USA is now delivering again strengthens Ukraine in its fight against Russia. But the future of American military aid to Ukraine is uncertain.
If Biden wins the US presidential election in November, things will look good for Ukraine. Because if Trump loses, power-hungry Republicans are likely to quickly turn away from him. Under such circumstances, a majority in Congress to continue aid to Ukraine is very likely.
If Trump wins, then it is very possible that he will soon freeze aid to Ukraine and meet with Putin as announced to end the war. But it could also be that Trump will continue to provide aid to Ukraine – if he initially hesitates to enter into negotiations with Putin or even if, as is likely, the talks with Putin are unsuccessful. At least Trump has now shown himself to be flexible in his statements about Ukraine.
But regardless of whether Biden or Trump is elected, America’s priority in the next few years will not be Europe, but the Indo-Pacific. China is making no move to moderate its escalatory stance in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan. At the same time, the focus is again on the Middle East, where Iran is increasingly attacking the US-led order – an order on which not only Israel’s security, but also that of the Gulf monarchies, rests. And if Iran deems it opportune to position itself as a nuclear power (which it is hardly capable of doing), then this could lead to a major Middle East crisis.
America’s expectation of Europe
In view of growing global challenges, the expectation in Washington is the same among Republicans and Democrats: a prosperous, stable, democratic Europe should be able to stand up to Russia’s territorial expansion largely on its own. The fact that the Europeans are doing so little themselves and showing no leadership qualities in the alliance is leading to growing irritation in the USA, where Europe’s security is seen as a task of the past, while in Asia it is seen as the major task of the future.
Biden is one of the last great transatlanticists; his worldview was shaped by the Cold War. For him it is natural to think about Europe’s security and to take responsibility. In principle, a majority of Americans are going along with it. But as the development of the Republicans in recent years shows, there is a growing unwillingness to defend a Europe that primarily invests in the welfare state and continues to let defense spending slide.
But Europe will continue to need America in the future. Washington successfully deterred the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It then also took the East Central Europeans under the nuclear protective umbrella. All of this has established a functioning peace order in Europe.
There is no alternative in sight. Left to their own devices, the Europeans are still not united against Russia and their ability to act and defend themselves is extremely limited. Without America’s involvement, Europe is at risk of fragmentation, which would offer new opportunities to a territorially expansive Russia and a power-hungry China.
Europe has to move
If the Europeans want to retain the vital American presence, then they must change their attitude. They must finally demonstrate to the USA that they are prepared to take on a much greater burden of common defense. If the Europeans announced at the NATO summit in Washington in June that they would target defense spending at 3 percent of economic output (instead of the current guideline of 2 percent), that they would set up a special fund for military aid to Ukraine worth $100 If you invest billions of euros for the next few years – in addition to the previous promises – all of this backed up with concrete plans, then the USA would be impressed.
Biden, who relies on alliances, especially with the Europeans, would be strengthened with such a readjustment of the burdens on European defense. And if Trump were elected, such European engagement would tend to take NATO, Ukraine and Europe out of the firing line. The transatlantic alliance would be placed on a new, stronger foundation. Europe would become safer and more influential.
But for this to happen, the Western Europeans would finally have to get out of the reactive mode and be serious about their rhetoric – that the future of the European security order is at stake in Ukraine. Instead of waiting for the next vote in the US House of Representatives, Berlin, Paris and London, but also Rome and Madrid, should finally do their homework on security policy.