It is still unclear whether this is a successful hit or a shot in the foot. The Chief Minister of Scotland, Humza Yousaf, has caused a crisis with complicated consequences by unilaterally breaking the government coalition that the Scottish National Party (SNP) had maintained with the Green Party since the 2021 regional elections. The nationalists, then led by Nicola Sturgeon, were two deputies short of an absolute majority, but decided to build a more solid pact with the Greens—also supporters of independence—to launch a new sovereignty project.
Yousaf replaced Sturgeon in March 2023, after a party finances scandal led to a police investigation in which the political leader herself and her husband, Peter Murrell, were implicated. Her election deeply divided the SNP, and the most conservative wing, led by Kate Forbes, never agreed with the compromises made with the Greens, or the Government’s defense of the so-called Gender Self-Determination Act.
Yousaf, aware that, for the first time, the Labor Party can regain its historic leadership in Scotland – which the SNP took from it in the 2014 independence referendum, although the segregation proposal was defeated – has decided to toughen its policies. He has renounced the commitment agreed with the Greens to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 75% by 2030, and has followed the decision of Rishi Sunak’s central government to ban treatment with puberty blockers for those under 18 years of age. .
A surprise crisis
Early this Thursday, after meeting his Government, Yousaf announced the breaking of the so-called Bute House Pact closed with the Greens and expelled from the Executive the two members of this party who held ministerial positions, Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater.
The Scottish Conservative Party, aware of Yousaf’s weakness, announced the presentation of a motion of no confidence against the chief minister, which will be debated next week. The bombshell came shortly after, when the Green Party, after urgently meeting its leadership early this Thursday afternoon, announced that its seven deputies would support the motion. Thus, if the Labor Party joins in – its leaders have already hinted that they will do so – the chances of the vote going ahead are very high.
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If the deputy of the Alba Party, created at the time by the former nationalist leader of the SNP Alex Salmond, joins the motion, it will pass. Although its result is not binding, a chief minister censured in this way would hardly be able to remain at the head of the ship in an election year as delicate as the current one.
Yousaf, 37, of Pakistani origin and the first Muslim politician to direct the destinies of Scotland, assures that he can continue governing as a minority, and that he feels stronger after having dissolved a coalition that had already entered into crisis and caused a great deal of unrest. lack of stability in the Executive. If he manages to convince any opposition deputy, he could achieve a tie in the result. Ash Regan, who was part of the SNP until he defected to the Alba Party dissatisfied with the slowdown in the independence cause, could be that key support.
If a tie occurs, it would be resolved by the casting vote of the president of the autonomous Parliament, Green MP Alison Johnstone. But paradoxically, parliamentary tradition requires that this casting vote always be in favor of the the status quo, which could preserve Yousaf in power. In return, the chief minister would consolidate the internal unity in the SNP, which he so badly needs at the moment.