Kiev’s war against Russia and pessimism

Russia continues to advance on the front – in small steps, but steadily. His army has had recent successes west of the Donbas city of Avdiivka and in the Kharkiv region. In the south, it is maintaining pressure on the village of Robotine, which was captured as part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. However, Kiev’s troops continue to repel the majority of the attacks. What is also psychologically important for them is that they were recently able to slightly widen the tiny bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro near Kherson.

The biggest problem facing the Ukrainians is the stabilization of the front near Avdiivka. The Russians have advanced about a dozen kilometers there in the last two weeks. They now hold a narrow front arc, which they are now widening after their breakthrough in the strategically important village of Otscheretine, most recently towards Archanhelske.

Pessimistic Ukrainian intelligence general

Although a collapse of the Ukrainian front seems unlikely, analysts are concerned about the aggressor’s overwhelming superiority in weapons and soldiers. If the Russians keep up the pressure, they could soon advance from Archanhelske to a key intersection of two logistics routes supplying the defenders further north.

There the invader with up to 25,000 men is running against the strategically important small town of Chasiv Yar. This lies on a hill and defends the Kostiantinivka junction and the Ukrainian Donbass bastions Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. If the Russians also break through in Chasiv Yar, the fighters in Toretsk, to the south, will be threatened with encirclement in the medium term. Even Vadim Skibitsky, the deputy director of Ukrainian military intelligence, believes the capture of Chaziv Yar is a matter of time.

The major general chose an extremely thoughtful tone in last week’s interview with The Economist. Skibizki expects further Russian offensives in May, accompanied by attempts to disillusion the Ukrainian population and isolate the government internationally. The “Financial Times” also noted such intensified hybrid warfare on Sunday in the rest of Europe.

Various experts point out that Russia’s army has been massing tens of thousands of soldiers near Kharkiv for some time. It may be planning an attack on the metropolis, which has been under attack for months, and the neighboring Sumi region. Skibizki also doubts that the enemy has enough troops for major conquests. But the 514,000 troops that Moscow is deploying against Ukraine, according to the general, pose a huge problem.

First American deliveries arrived

The intelligence officer says his country is experiencing its most difficult phase since the first days of the war. «We keep fighting, we have no choice. But the outcome of the war is not in our hands.” The first two shipments of American artillery ammunition have reached Ukraine. However, it will probably be weeks before the majority of them reach the front.

Even then, according to the Economist article, it remains uncertain whether the supplies will be enough to counter Russia’s huge production of artillery shells and the glide bombs that are destroying entire rows of houses and forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw from Avdiivka. If nothing fundamental changes, says Skibizki, Kiev will run out of weapons before Moscow.

Of course, such statements should not be taken entirely at face value, as they also serve to prevent the Europeans in particular from falling into passivity after the agreement in Washington on new weapons aid. Nevertheless, such pessimistic outlooks as Skibizki’s are unusual. They probably also reflect uncertainty about how long Ukraine can continue to fight despite its will to defend itself and what its war aim is after major reconquests have become unlikely for months or even years.

American officials told the New York Times anonymously that they expected that Ukraine would not be able to stabilize the front until the summer or, in the worst case, even at the end of the year. Nevertheless, security advisor Jake Sullivan has already spoken again about possible counteroffensives by Kiev in 2025. But this would require significantly more support, especially from Europe.

Ukrainian pinpricks against Russia’s hinterland

Since the delivery of new American Atacms missiles, Kiev has at least been able to give needle pricks to the Russian troops in the hinterland. The Ukrainians recently carried out successful attacks against military airports and air defenses in Crimea and in Russian-occupied Donbass.

In Luhansk Oblast, they hit a field with cluster munitions where Russian soldiers were preparing for battle. According to Ukrainian reports, over a hundred men were killed. However, even such blows have more of a symbolic significance than a decisive factor in the war: the Russians sacrifice thousands of their own soldiers even for minor successes and can compensate for the losses.