From 2019 to 2024, the country’s population will increase by 4.9 million people, but the average growth rate will decrease to 0.99% compared to 1.22% in the previous period due to reduced fertility.
The 2024 mid-term population and housing census was announced by the General Statistics Office on January 6. Vietnam’s population as of April 1, 2024 reached more than 101.1 million people, the third largest in Southeast Asia. after Indonesia and the Philippines. Men account for 49.8% of the population, over 50.3 million people, and women reach 50.8 million people.
From 2019 to 2024, Vietnam’s population will increase by nearly one million people each year, but the average growth rate will only reach 0.99%, down from 1.22% in the 2014-2019 period. The General Statistics Office assesses the rate of decline due to reduced fertility but the population size remains stable.
For nearly 15 years from 1999 to 2022, Vietnam’s fertility rate stabilized around replacement fertility level. In the past two years, fertility rates have shown signs of rapidly decreasing from 1.96 children per woman in 2023 to 1.91 children in 2024.
Children in Hanoi in front of the Cathedral on Christmas Eve 2024. Photo: Giang Huy
The proportion of urban population is over 38% while rural population is nearly 62%. The urban population has increased on average more than 3% per year in the past 5 years, 1.5 times faster than the period 2014-2019. Hanoi’s population reached nearly 8.7 million people; Ho Chi Minh City has 9.5 million people. Bac Kan has the least population with 328,600 people, a difference of 29 times compared to Ho Chi Minh City.
In terms of population density, Vietnam ranks third in Southeast Asia after Singapore and the Philippines, at 305 people/km2. The Red River Delta and the Southeast have the second highest density in the country, respectively 1,126 people/km2 and 814 people/km2. The Northern Midlands and Mountains and Central Highlands have the lowest levels, respectively 140 people/km2 and 114 people/km2.
The Red River Delta with 24 million people has the largest population concentration in the country, accounting for nearly 24% of the total population; The Central Highlands is the lowest with 6.2 million people, over 6%. The Southeast achieved the highest average population growth rate of 1.46% per year nationwide, while the Mekong Delta had the lowest, only 0.29%.
Vietnam is still in the “golden population structure” period with one dependent for every two people of working age. The proportion of the population aged 15-64 accounts for over 67%; Under 15 years old accounts for more than 23% and over 65 years old accounts for more than 9%. However, the population aging index increased faster than in the years 2014-2019. The country has more than 14 million elderly people over 60 years old and it is forecast that by 2030 it will reach 18 million people.
After-shift hours of Pouyuen factory workers – the most crowded enterprise in Ho Chi Minh City, 2022. Photo: Nhu Quynh
The population is increasing but the scale and proportion of migrants are decreasing and tend to fall to the lowest level since 1999.. There are only 4 million migrants left in the country out of a total of 69 million people aged 5 years and older. In 1999, this number was 4.5 million people and increased to the highest of 6.7 million people in 2009.
The Southeast is still the most attractive destination for migrants when the three big cities of Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Dong Nai have industrial parks that create many jobs. Over 57% of migrants to the Southeast come from the Mekong Delta, while over 62% come to the Red River Delta from the Northern Midlands and Mountains.
13 provinces and cities have a positive net migration rate, meaning there are more immigrants than emigration. Among them, Binh Duong has the highest positive net migration rate of 77.6‰; Bac Ninh 61.8‰, Da Nang over 55‰, Can Tho 30.9‰ and Ho Chi Minh City 25.8‰.
The mid-term survey recorded that 60% of migrants were aged 20-39, there was a phenomenon of “feminization of migration” when women accounted for 55.7% of the total number of people leaving. About 40% of migrants move to a new place to look for work or start a new job, while more than 30% follow their family or move house.
The results of the mid-term survey are the basis for assessing the socio-economic development situation in the period 2021-2025, policy planning for the years 2026-2030, as well as monitoring the United Nations sustainability goals that Vietnam has set. Nam commits.