Because in the EU diesel increases more than petrol

The prices of petroleum products have skyrocketed since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, with the diesel in the lead: in an already restricted market before the war, theEuropa is paying dearly for its dependence on imports of this fuel, the most consumed.

Impact of the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz

Oil and gas exports from the Gulf are affected by attacks on infrastructure and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This exacerbates pre-existing strains on Europe’s diesel supply, which has brutal consequences on pump prices and threatens inflation in many sectors.

Because diesel is more affected than petrol

Diesel is more affected than petrol because diesel is everywhere: it powers cars, road freight and passenger transport, but also agricultural and construction machinery, as well as fishing and part of the maritime sector.

Diesel consumption in Europe

Despite gradual electrification in the European Union, diesel still accounts for 86% of road fuel consumption in Latvia, 73% in France, 66% in Germany in 2024, but only 50% in the Netherlands, according to a report by FuelsEurope, which represents the refining and fuels industry.

Record diesel prices

On Thursday, the price of European diesel surpassed 200 dollars a barrela level not seen since March 2022 and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. Before the conflict in the Middle East, “the supply/demand balance of diesel” globally “was much tighter than that of petrol”, which then resulted in a “sharp increase in diesel prices” in markets while it “remained relatively tight” for petrol, Susan Bell, commodities specialist at Rystad Energy, told AFP.

In France, the price of diesel has increased by 32.7% since February 27, the day before the first Israeli-American attacks on Iran. That’s far more than the 16.86% increase in SP95-E10, the most consumed gasoline in the country, according to an AFP calculation of prices reported by about 9,600 stations on a government website.

Average prices in the European Union

As of March 30, the weighted average pump price in theEU was 2.07 per litrecompared to 1.87 for the Super95. Diesel has long been cheaper than petrol, but this has not consistently been the case in recent years, due to geopolitical tensions and tax recovery.

Structural imbalances between petrol and diesel

An industrial and fiscal legacy has led Europe to be a net exporter of petrol, but a net importer of diesel. The “dieselization” of the automotive fleet, encouraged 25 years ago by tax incentives and automakers, has sent demand for diesel soaring while refiners, historically focused on gasoline, have failed to keep pace.

The result: a surplus of gasoline exported particularly to the United States and Africa, and a structural deficit of diesel. The dependence on the Middle East, then, has a very specific reason. Russia was the EU’s main diesel supplier until the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the package of sanctions against Moscow that prompted Europe to diversify its contributions, from India, Turkey, the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Data on diesel imports

The average? Orient supplied just over half of Europe’s diesel imports in 2025 (554,000 barrels per day out of a total of 1.06 million), according to Rystad Energy data provided to AFP. About a third of this Middle Eastern diesel passed through the Strait of Hormuz, flows that are difficult to replace.

Possible solutions to the crisis

“The most efficient and economical way for Europe would be to get diesel from Russia,” said Susan Bell, but the European Union has no intention of lifting its sanctions against Moscow. Postponement of refinery maintenance, the use of strategic reserves and a reduction in consumption appear to be the only levers to partially absorb the imbalance, she concluded.