What happens after the ceasefire in the Middle East: “humiliating defeat” for Trump and “return to the status quo”

Experts consulted by Clarion After the agreement they claim that Trump “created this time bomb by imposing a deadline and then realized that Iran I wasn’t going to give in to their demands” and that now the Iranian regime, by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, “will emphasize to the world that controls a nerve center of the world economy”.

They also talk “humiliating defeat” for the Republican and? In the end “it will be a return to the status quo prior to the war that Trump himself started.”

In the 10 point proposal of Iran, and which Trump said was the “foundation” for negotiating a final agreement, Tehran demands permanent end to war and any attack against the “Axis of Resistance”, as it calls its allied groups in the region, including Hezbollah.

According to a regime statement reported by Iranian media on Tuesday night, the demands also included the establishment of a formal protocol for passage through the Strait of Hormuz “that guarantees an oversight role for Iran“.

The list includes recognition of Iran’s right to uranium enrichmentthe “withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases and military deployment points in the region”, full compensation for war damagesthe lifting of all sanctions against Iran and the release of all Iranian assets held abroad.

We will have to see finally what do you remember at the end of the negotiations. But the vast majority of these demands were considered “unacceptable” to the US recently.

It was clear that Trump was looking for a quick solution to that conflict that lasted 39 days of attacks, much longer than the president expected, and that harmed him internally.

The war is rejected by almost 60% of Americans, who see the price of fuel rise at the pumps and They are worried about inflation.

Looking ahead to the November legislative elections, it was a fatal burden for the Republican, whose popularity is among the lowest of any president at this point in his term and who had promised Do not get involved in external conflicts.

After midnight, Trump sought to resume the narrative and posted on Truth Social that he had been “a great day for world peace” and that Iran was the one who had asked for the war to stop. He said the US would help “with trafficking in the Strait of Hormuz” and that Iran could begin its reconstruction process. “We will load supplies of all kinds,” he added and predicted that “a golden era in the Middle East” would begin.

lan McPhersondirector of the Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy at Temple University, told Clarion that the news “considerably relieves the pressure on both sides, especially about Trumpwho created this time bomb by imposing a deadline and then realized that Iran I wasn’t going to give in to their demands.”

“Your greatest fear It is looking like a loser in a negotiation“And Iran, even with its self-destruction, would have made it look like a loser if the war had continued,” he added.

“By linking a two-week peace to the opening of the strait, Iran will emphasize to the world that it controls a nerve center of the world economy,” the expert said.

“China’s diplomatic intervention “It was probably a result of rising oil prices, and this breakout, if it holds, should boost the markets and make Trump realize that he needs a definitive way out of this disastrous war of his choosing.”

McPherson suspects that Trump “will simply declare, in two weeks, that he has reopened the strait and that Iran will never again threaten the outside world. That will be his way out: a return to the status quo before the war that he himself started. Of course, Trump is unpredictable and a liar, so he might think he is perceived as a loser and break the ceasefire.”

Kristian Coates Ulrichsena Middle East researcher at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Clarion that “we must wait to see if the ceasefire holds and if all parties respect the pause in military operations. This obviously includes Israeland so far it is not clear what the Israeli position is or whether it participated in the dialogue process mediated by Pakistan.”

In fact, the Pakistani prime minister said on Tuesday that the attacks in Lebanon would cease and later, the Israeli head of government, Benjamin Netanyahu, said that the agreement did not include the offensive in that country.

Expert Coates Ulrichsen warns that “there could also be tension over the order of the ceasefire if Israeli and US officials demand that Iran first reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian officials respond that they must first cease fighting before taking any action in Hormuz.”

“Each party wins time to determine whether the other is credible in its genuine desire for a peace agreement, given that on two occasions in the last year the United States has authorized military action against Iran while both sides were in talks. Therefore, there is a great lack of trust and neither the United States along with Israel nor Iran currently believe the other side is negotiating in good faith. If the two-week ceasefire holds, will be an important measure to build trust. But if it fails, it will make any peace agreement much more difficult to achieve.”

To Osama Khalil, director of the International Relations Program at Syracuse University, “the two-week ceasefire is good news. This conflict was totally avoidable and the blame falls entirely on President Donald Trump,” he told this newspaper.

The war, the expert noted, “was based on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s erroneous assessments about the weakening of the Iranian government and military” and added that “Trump launched the attack on Iran against the advice of key Pentagon planners and the intelligence community, and without consulting European allies de Washington”.

For the analyst, “Iran has suffered serious damage due to US and Israeli airstrikes, with a high number of civilian victims. However, the government and the armed forces they stay in power and they enjoy, possibly, greater popularity than before the war, due to nationalist opposition to the attacks.”

“Furthermore, Trump and Netanyahu’s plans for regime change have fallen apart. Iran still retains control of the Strait of Hormuz and all its territory. It also maintains a significant arsenal of missiles and drones. in case fighting resumes, as well as its reserves of highly enriched uranium. Most importantly, President Trump acknowledged that Iran’s ten-point proposal to end the conflict would be the basis of negotiationsand not his maximalist positions, which were what started it.”

Khalil predicts that “if an agreement is reached based on the Iranian proposal, especially in the lifting of sanctions and guarantees against future attacksTehran will get out of this war battered but victoriousjust the opposite of what Trump and Netanyahu claimed would happen.”

Furthermore, he points out, “these actions contributed to further undermine America’s reputationits relations with partners and allies, and revealed that the United States, under Trump, It was not only unreliable, but also unstable”.

And he concludes that “although Trump will proclaim victory, as he has done for more than a month, this It’s a humiliating defeat. for the United States that has exposed the fragility of its global military posture. AND will have repercussions for the remainder of his second term and beyond”.