Xi and Trump compete for influence over the Lula government

What is the current situation of American and Chinese investments in the country?

The United States remains the largest direct investor, with US$244.7 billion registered in 2025. However, China is quickly gaining ground, making Brazil its second main destination for investments abroad. Chinese capital focuses on vital sectors, such as energy, technology and infrastructure, with contributions that could exceed R$27 billion by 2032.

How does the trade relationship with China affect the Brazilian economy?

There is a strong dependence on commodity exports, such as iron ore, soybeans and oil, which make up 80% of what Brazil sells to the Chinese. In 2025, trade between the two countries reached a record US$100 billion. This flow is essential to maintain Brazil’s foreign money reserves and balance the value of the dollar.

How has the Trump government acted in relation to Brazil?

Trump adopted a pragmatic strategy to contain the presence of China and Russia in Latin America. He has negotiated specific agreements with the Lula government, such as MIT, a cooperation team against drug and weapons trafficking. Furthermore, there is a strong interest among Americans in guaranteeing access to critical Brazilian minerals, used in batteries and high technology.

What are the main criticisms and warnings made by the United States?

Even negotiating agreements, Washington remains critical of judicial and Lula government decisions that restrict freedom of expression. American commercial reports also point out practices that they consider unfair, citing Pix, piracy in shopping centers such as Rua 25 de Março and import tariffs that they consider high.

Is Brazil at risk of suffering economic punishment from the Americans?

Experts believe that an open trade war is unlikely, but predict occasional pressures. This could include higher tariffs on Brazilian steel and diplomatic resistance against the entry of Chinese companies into ports or telecommunications networks in Brazil. The American objective is to force an alignment, but this could end up pushing the country even closer to China.