Metabolic liver disease could affect nearly 1.8 billion people worldwide by 2050, according to a study. The rise has been attributed to an increase in population, rising obesity and rising blood sugar levels. We are talking about steatotic liver disease associated with metabolic dysfunction (MASLD), which was previously called non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is one of the most common and fastest growing liver diseases in the world.
According to recent estimates, approximately 1.3 billion people are diagnosed with MASLD today – about 16% of the world’s population, that is, one in six people. Over the past three decades, the number of cases has increased by approximately 143%. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, published in The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, show that the disease affected about 500 million people in 1990, 1.3 billion in 2023, and a projected increase to 1.8 billion by 2050 (about 42% more than today). The prevalence of the disease has also increased, with an estimated 14,429 cases per 100,000 people in 2023, up 29% from 1990 levels.
MASLD is more common in men, and the highest rates are recorded among older adults 80-84 years of age. Moreover, the largest absolute number of cases occurs in younger age groups: approximately 35-39 years in men and 55-59 years in women. The main risk factors are elevated blood sugar, high body mass index and smoking, which emphasizes the close connection of the disease with type 2 diabetes and obesity.
Prevalence rates are particularly high in some regions, including North Africa and the Middle East, but increases are occurring almost throughout the world. For example, in the UK the rate increased by 33% from 1990 to 2023, in Australia by 30%, and in the US by 22%. However, despite the increase in the number of cases, the overall impact of the disease on public health remains relatively stable. Researchers attribute this to improved diagnosis and treatment, resulting in patients living longer and at earlier stages of the disease.
However, the increase in the number of cases means an increase in future risks of complications, including cirrhosis and liver cancer. MASLD is often asymptomatic and often discovered incidentally, and its main correction is lifestyle changes. The study highlights that the disease is increasingly affecting young people amid deteriorating metabolic health and the spread of unhealthy habits.
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