Bulgaria election: Former President Radev celebrates landslide victory

Five parties will certainly be represented in the next parliament in Sofia. According to the exit polls by the opinion research institute Alpha Research, the bourgeois GERB party of the former long-term prime minister Boyko Borissov, whose government resigned after mass protests in December, follows Radev’s election winner “Progressive Bulgaria” with 16.2 percent.

The liberal-conservative reform alliance PP-DB (We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria) comes in third place with 14.3 percent, followed by the oligarch Deljan Peewski’s EU-friendly economic party DPS with 8.4 percent of the vote.

The pro-Russian and EU-critical right-wing populists of “Vasrashdane” (in German: Rebirth) reach fifth place with just 4.9 percent, after previously being the third strongest parliamentary party. It remains unclear whether the crisis-ridden socialist party BSP, which is considered Russia-friendly, will make it past the 4 percent hurdle into parliament. According to post-election surveys, she received 4.1 percent of the votes cast.

The distribution of mandates in the 240-member parliament does not allow “Progressive Bulgaria” to form a sole government. According to pollsters’ calculations, Radev’s party would get 105 seats. The GERB party would have 43 representatives, the PP-DB alliance – 38. The economic party of the former media mogul Peewski will enter parliament with 23 representatives, and the national populists – with 14. The new smallest parliamentary group would be the Socialists with eleven representatives.

Radev has so far kept a low profile regarding coalition partners

Rumen Radev has so far remained tight-lipped about possible future coalition partners. On the evening of the election, he simply said that Bulgaria needed a stable government and could not afford new elections. According to sociologists, the former head of state draws his voters from all parties, but especially from the left-wing, nationalist and pro-Russian spectrum. The socialists and national populists of “Vasrashdane” are particularly suffering from this. A government coalition with the right-wing populists is considered impossible. The Socialists can only be considered as coalition partners if they jump over the four percent hurdle.

The biggest open question remains whether the PP-DB alliance will enter into a coalition with the more pro-Russian and thoroughly EU-critical Radev and thus jump over his shadow, because then the Europe-friendly formation would gamble away the trust of the mass protests in December. Since they were extremely pro-Western, pro-European and directed against a reorientation and turn towards Russia, the ex-president held back in the election campaign until the end. However, at the final rally of his “Progressive Bulgaria” formation, Radev showed big screen images of him shaking hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin in front of the Bulgarian and Russian flags.

Both the 62-year-old former president and the liberal-conservative pro-European alliance PP-DB are striving for judicial reform. They also want to dismantle the corrupt oligarch model of the GERB party. While the bourgeois party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov supports Ukraine and Brussels’ policies, Radev is against further aid to Ukraine and is committed to dialogue with Moscow. While still head of state, he also called for a referendum to be held on the introduction of the euro. Bulgaria joined the euro zone on January 1st.

Because of the complicated situation, new elections in the fall, when regular presidential elections are due, cannot be ruled out.