“Trump is sinking”, the king of analysts and the polls: here’s who has abandoned the president

Sabato has been following polls for decades, has lived through every American election cycle from the 1970s onwards and knows the inner workings of the Republican Party with a depth that few other analysts can boast. His reading is precise, anchored to the numbers, and in some ways goes against the dominant narrative of recent weeks. “Trump is sinking – says Sabato – In some polls he has fallen into the low range of 30% approval. It is a number that has not been seen for some time, and which for a president in his second term, with a majority in Congress, represents a real alarm signal. The data confirm his reading.

The latest CNBC poll put Trump’s approval on the economy at 39%, with 60% disapproving: the lowest result recorded in both of his terms, down ten points compared to the previous quarter. On the conflict in Iran the opinion is even more severe: 37% approve, 63% disapprove. According to Pew Research, only 27% of Americans support most of the president’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to the White House last year. 48% of Americans say they feel less safe because of the war with Iran. 64% believe that the conflict is not worth the economic burden and increase in petrol prices it has caused.

Three factors explain the decline, according to the analyst: the war in Iran, the price of petrol and the cost of food. “High gas and food prices, coupled with a deeply unpopular war, explain this collapse,” he says. But this is where Sabato’s analysis becomes more useful than the headlines in recent days let on. The defections of Carlson, former Sorceress Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, however vociferous, do not tell the story they seem. “The Maga are still with him, between 80 and 85%. Don’t be fooled by the defections of some leaders.”

The data proves him right. The CNBC survey shows that Maga voters maintain 96% approval of Trump. Meanwhile, Thomas Massie, a Republican congressman from Kentucky, wrote on

Analysis by CNN pollster Harry Enten showed Maga Republicans’ support at 100%. The one who is walking away is someone else. “It is the traditional Republicans, those who voted for the party before Trump took control, who are partially disengaging,” explains Sabato.

The data confirms: support for non-Maga Republicans has dropped 19 points, to 60%. Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research and a Democratic pollster, is blunt: “This year’s enthusiasm gap looks a lot like 2022, only in reverse. In March 2022, Republicans had an eight-point advantage in interest in the election. This year, Democrats have a thirteen-point advantage. And if the cost of energy continues to rise throughout the year, as many economists expect, it would make Democratic voters even angrier and Republican voters even more disheartened,” he explains to Adnkronos.

The most serious problem for the White House, according to Sabato, however, lies elsewhere: “The biggest problem for Trump is the independents. They have had enough of him. Three-quarters of them disapprove of his work in some polls.” It is the voters who decide the swing states, and right now the numbers say they are not satisfied. Only 15% of independents say they will vote for Republican candidates in 2026, according to the Brookings Institution. The groups that had moved toward Trump in 2024, Latinos, young men, whites without college degrees, are expressing clear disapproval of both the war and the economy.

Sabato’s prediction about the immediate future is anchored to two concrete variables: “If the war ended within a not too long time and if the price of gasoline returned to three dollars, or even three and a half dollars a gallon, Trump’s approval could rise to forty percent. It’s not a good result, but it would be enough to support him politically.” The question that keeps Washington busy, however, concerns the aftermath. If discontent continued to grow, who in the Republican Party would be able to muster that vote? The question of succession, which until a few months ago seemed like a premature conversation, has become the most discussed topic in party living rooms and offices. Trump himself has begun to test the waters, informally asking his advisors and donors who they would prefer as a successor. His favorite game in recent weeks, several sources tell Axios, is to ask: JD Vance or Marco Rubio? Sabato immediately rules out Vance: “Vance can’t separate himself from Trump.” The vice president has built his entire recent political career on total embrace of Trumpism, first as a fierce critic during his first term, then as an enthusiastic supporter. Today his public identity is so overlapping with that of the president that any attempt to distance himself would expose him to immediate attacks from the very base he is supposed to be rallying. Vance has publicly supported the war in Iran, although according to some sources he harbors doubts in private, and has defended the president’s choices at all times. The problem, for him, is that this absolute loyalty exposes him at a time when Trump is in difficulty. The data from CPAC, the annual gathering of American conservatives, tells a lot: Vance took 53% of the vote in the internal poll, down from 61% last year. Rubio went from 3% to 35%.

The name that Sabato indicates as a possible point of reference is that of Rubio: “Maybe he could do it.” The Secretary of State, the first Latin American to hold that role in the history of the United States, has a profile built on different foundations from those of Vance. He entered politics before Trump, has an independent history, lost against him in the 2016 primaries and then was able to reposition himself without seeming like a pure opportunist. In these months of war, Rubio has been at center stage: secretary of state, interim national security advisor, public figure for the administration on the most difficult issues. Some White House advisers are already privately promoting him as a 2028 candidate.

“He is loyal, extraordinarily intelligent, articulate and very knowledgeable,” a senior White House official told Politico. Trump himself has publicly praised him on several occasions: “He will go down in history as the best secretary of state this country has ever had.” However, Rubio has already publicly pledged to support Vance if the vice president were to run. “If J.D. Vance runs for president, he will be our candidate and I will be among the first to support him,” he told Vanity Fair. The two are close friends, having served together in the Senate, and their cabinet chiefs have known each other for years.

The game for 2028 is open, but it will not be played before the mid-term elections. Sabato returns to cite November 2026 as the true watershed. “Ask me the question after the midterm elections. Let’s see who performs well and what new figures emerge.” It is the moment in which the real state of the party will be measured: if the Republicans lost the House or the Senate, the pressure on the president would change in nature and the space for alternative figures would open up in a concrete way. If, however, the party held, the critical voices of Carlson and Greene would remain what Sabato already tends to consider: noise, not signal. For now, wait until November. (by Angelo Paura)