La Jornada: Drones and autonomous taxis will boost the Chinese economy by 2035

Guangzhou. Delivery drones and autonomous taxis are Greater Bay’s bet to promote the low-altitude economy, a concept that encompasses all the activities that occur in the airspace below a thousand meters, based on unmanned aerial vehicles and that – according to projections by the Civil Aviation Administration of China – in 2035 could inject 3.5 trillion yuan into the economy of this country.

Neighboring Shenzhen, also in Guangdon province, is a pioneer in the commercial deployment of the low-altitude economy with parcel services operated by the Meituan company, a service that has extended to Shanghai and Hong Kong. Drone shows and agricultural services are something that already exists in several provinces, they have even been exported to other countries. However, Guangzhou is the epicenter of the development of autonomous vehicles to transport passengers.

Although the low-altitude economy has been developing for years also in the United States and Europe, until today the company that concentrates between 70 and 80 percent of global drone sales worldwide is Chinese: DJI. Also in this country, the first official permit was given for electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (known as eVTOL) to operate commercially and transport passengers.

With the endorsement of the Civil Aviation Administration, Ehang can begin marketing its eVTOL units – which are slightly larger than a drone, but smaller than an average helicopter – with a view to creating a fleet of low-altitude air taxis.

According to an analysis by BofA Global Research, the growth of the low-altitude economy “is largely driven by increased takeoff and landing of electric vehicles” and global civil adoption of eVTOL “could grow 62 percent between 2025 and 2030.”

The report published by the US bank’s research area in June estimates that by 2045 there will be 250,000 eVTOL units in operation on a global scale, more than 150,000 dedicated to the transportation of passengers and cargo, the rest dedicated to tourism and to a lesser extent public services.

Peter Pan, senior marketing manager at Pilotless Air Taxi Company EHang, explains in an interview that the company’s autonomous vehicles have made 8,500 flights in 21 countries and so far no accidents have been recorded. “All the tests have been very safe and all our engine systems are independent,” he points out about the behavior of the units in different weather conditions, such as heat, cold, rain and storms.

Years of testing and development

During a tour of the Haixinsha Omni-Space Intelligent Experience Center, where other models and brands of this type of autonomous vehicles are exhibited, Pan explains that the design of its units – eight axles and 16 propellers, all independent – ​​means that if one of these components breaks down, it does not affect the rest and the flight can continue safely.

According to BofA Global Research, urban air mobility will be what drives the low-altitude economy globally, with a compound annual growth of 85 percent in the next 10 years and 28 percent in the next 20. Thus, a market that last year reached 3 billion dollars, by 2035 it is estimated that it will scale to 61 billion and 210 billion in 2045.

Behind this growth is the promise that these air taxis could reduce travel time in cities by between 50 and 70 percent, not only by using low-altitude airspace, but because they are automatic and their route is programmed, contingencies are avoided.

While Chinese companies have conducted test exercises in several countries and discussed sales prospects, the possibility of large-scale commercial development has only seriously advanced in Dubai.

There are still regulatory and technological limitations for the operation of these vehicles, among them the length of time their batteries last, since they only allow a trip of almost 160 kilometers, in addition to the ultra-low latency – the length of time it takes for a signal to go from one point to another – is vital to avoid any accident and hence the need for the deployment of fifth or sixth generation wireless networks.

Added to this are costs. Not only the vehicle, which currently costs just over 300 thousand dollars (more than 5 million pesos), but also the city infrastructure so that they can operate safely.

According to market outlooks, the cost of producing an eVTOL is expected to decrease by around 50 percent in the next five years, as manufacturers increase their production.