Mr. Thaksin’s political future after his release from prison

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, 76 years old, was released from Klong Prem central prison in Bangkok ahead of schedule on the morning of May 11 and will wear an electronic monitoring device for another 4 months of probation.

The image of hundreds of supporters wearing red shirts and cheering when they saw Mr. Thaksin step out from the prison gate shows that this man still has great influence in Thailand, despite having spent most of the past 20 years in exile and the last 8 months in prison.

Mr. Thaksin has been Thailand’s prime minister since 2001 but was overthrown in a military coup in 2006. However, the Shinawatra family and his Pheu Thai party have still dominated Thai politics for nearly two decades, with four people serving as prime minister and receiving widespread support from rural voters, who often wear red shirts to symbolize the movement.

In recent days, his early release has been news that has attracted great attention in Thailand. The Pheu Thai Party has announced that Thaksin will now retreat to the background, but that still cannot prevent the media from enthusiastically speculating about his future role in Thai politics.

This is not without basis. Since being elected prime minister in January 2001, Thaksin, a self-made billionaire, has sought to reshape the country and win widespread support among Thailand’s working class.

With the support of rural voters, the Pheu Thai party and previous predecessors of this political organization have continuously won elections. However, in the eyes of Thailand’s pro-military and royal elite, his populist approach is seen as a threat to the traditional social order.

That led to adverse rulings by Thailand’s Constitutional Court targeting Thaksin’s allies, violent street protests and a military coup in 2014.

But Thaksin refused to back down. Despite living in exile, he continued to run his party from abroad. After reaching a “big compromise” with his conservative opponents, he returned home in 2023 to directly lead the party once it returned to power.

According to commentator Jonathan Head’s BBCMr. Thaksin seemed unable to accept stepping back into the background, despite statements that he wanted to spend more time with his grandchildren.

But over the past year, Thai politics has witnessed many changes. Mr. Thaksin was jailed last September, after the Supreme Court of Thailand ruled that the six months he spent in the police hospital after returning home were just a period of time to avoid serving his prison sentence.

This ruling came less than two weeks after the coalition government led by the Pheu Thai party collapsed and the Constitutional Court dismissed his daughter, Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as prime minister, following a scandal involving a leaked phone call between her and Cambodian leader Hun Sen about resolving the two countries’ border dispute.

While Mr. Thaksin was in prison, the Pheu Thai party saw its worst election results ever in the February general election. The party was pushed to third place, behind the People’s Reform Party and overshadowed by the Bhumjaithai party. Pheu Thai was forced to accept the position of minor coalition partner in the new government of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

According to political analyst Ken Lohatepanont, Mr. Thaksin will enter a new political environment after being released from prison.

“Pheu Thai has been marginalized, now considered only a mid-range party. The challenge that Mr. Thaksin and his party face is of a completely different scale than before,” Lohatepanont said.

After completing 4 months of probation, Mr. Thaksin can completely return to politics. However, Pheu Thai will now have to decide whether Mr. Thaksin’s return will be a “stimulant” for the party, or they will have to focus more on the younger generation of leaders, Ken assessed.

Still, Thaksin’s popularity was evident outside prison, where his supporters had gathered. One of them, Maysa Lombuarot, drove 700 km to witness the moment the former prime minister was freed.

“Today I brought him 20 kg of lychees. I know he likes them. Now that he is free, I want him to eat something delicious,” Maysa said, adding that he hopes Mr. Thaksin will continue his political career.

“I want him to help the country, to help the people who are suffering so much today. Only he can do what he promised,” Maysa continued.