La Jornada: The decline in GDP in the first quarter was less than estimated

The Mexican economy contracted 0.6 percent in the first three months of 2026, a figure that was less than the fall reported in the timely estimate published at the end of April, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported yesterday.

The revised gross domestic product (GDP) data in January-March of this year was not only below the 0.8 percent published by the autonomous body, but was also lower than analysts’ expectations.

The correction is explained by the 0.4 percent increase in the global indicator of economic activity (IGAE), a measurement that shows the dynamism of the country’s economy on a monthly basis. The quarterly decline in GDP occurs after the 0.7 percent rebound in October-December 2025.

While the 1.0 percent decline in industrial activity compared to the previous quarter was revised, after it was estimated at 1.1 percent.

Commerce and services fell 0.4 percent quarterly in the reference period, not 0.6 percent as published at the end of last April. This correction helped, since the sector contributes two thirds of GDP.

Agriculture, livestock and fishing decreased 1.7 percent compared to the previous quarter. The data showed an adjustment after the 1.4 percent calculated in April. Regarding the first quarter of 2025, Inegi also adjusted the estimated data, as it went from a slight growth of 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent.

The correction is also attributed to an improvement in tertiary activities, with an adjustment from 0.9 percent to 1.1. The estimated data for the industry remained at a decline of 1.1 percent. However, primary activities did not decrease 0.1 percent, but rather advanced 0.3 percent compared to the first quarter of 2025.