Trump urges the Arabs to join the Abraham Accords. They are not in a hurry

Trump wrote on the social network he controls, truth, that “I obligingly request that all countries sign the Abraham Accords, provided of course that Iran signs an agreement with me.” He continued, because one or two of the countries could have reasons not to join, but most of them should be “ready, prepared and willing to make this agreement with Iran a much more historic event than it will be now.”

But the countries are in no hurry to accept the invitation, and on the ground it is not clear how Operation Roaring Hari and its end affects the core of their problems with Israel.

Trump’s announcement is not relevant to one country in the Gulf – the United Arab Emirates. Its president, Mohammed bin Zayed, normalized relations with Israel already in 2020. On the one hand, following the normalization of relations, the country benefited from Israeli aid during the war in the form of air defense systems, but Dr. Yoel Guzhansky, head of the Gulf Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, explains that this also has a negative side – “During the war, the United Arab Emirates was attacked more than any other because of the relationship with Israel, so it is a double-edged sword,” he emphasizes.

Huge economic potential

The economic potential from normalizing Israel’s relations with the Gulf states is enormous.

One of the ways in which this is reflected, is the IMEC corridor plan for a transport, electrical and communication connection from India to Europe, through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. A project that was presented back in September 2023, and received Trump’s support when he entered the White House, but nothing really happened on the ground. The infrastructure of the countries is not even close to being ready for the move.

There is one essential issue standing in the way of a wide regional economic profit. The Gulf countries, and especially Saudi Arabia, do not allow themselves to normalize relations with Israel – with no horizon for a Palestinian state. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi officials recognize the many benefits of a relationship with Jerusalem, but will have difficulty explaining to the people why they are “abandoning” the Palestinians.

Dr. Ido Zelkovich, head of the Middle East Studies program at Emek Jezreel Academy, explains that Operation Roaring Harry pushed the Palestinian issue to the margins, and that this is evident on the ground. However, “As long as there are no elections in Israel that will bring about a strategic change in the Palestinian issue, we will remain in the status quo with the concessions. At the moment, there is no Israeli desire and ability to change policy on the Palestinian issue,” explains Dr. Zelkovich.

Trump’s deadline

Trump has until January 2029 to accomplish a significant, perhaps even historic, political achievement in his second presidential term. At least for the time being, it is evident that with Iran he will have difficulty living up to his early statements, especially in the nuclear aspect. It is not impossible that he is now planning to return to the expansion of normalization with Israel, after a year ago, in an interview with Fox News, he said that he thought Tehran might join the Abraham Accords.

Dr. Kobi Barda, historian and geostrategy expert says that “Regarding the expansion of the Abraham agreements with other countries, in the current government there is no chance in the world that this will happen. With a different composition in the next government, it will be possible to break through. Could Saudi Arabia, Oman or others join? The answer is definitely yes. IMEC’s ​​vision is based on an economic connection and transportation of goods between the countries.”

In the Gulf countries, they did not hide their great bewilderment at Trump’s expectations, but avoided criticism. “The answers of the Gulf people did not surprise me,” concludes the expert on Gulf issues. “It is not clear on what basis Trump is asking – from their point of view – to make concessions and get closer to Israel. These countries have certain conditions that I do not see how Israel will fulfill them. I do not understand what Trump’s leverage is and how he manages to involve any kind of agreement with Iran with such a move.”