Climate change: they warn of new records of global maximum temperatures for the next four years

The probability that at least one of the five years exceeds that temperature threshold is 91%, adds the report published this Thursday and prepared for the UN agency by the British national meteorological service, the Met Office.

The chances are also very high that one of those years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record, an 86% chance. Taking into account that the warmest recorded in history had already crossed the limits of Paris, with an increase in the average temperature of 1.55°C compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

In principle, the rise in global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 is expected to fluctuate between 1.3°C and 1.9°C. An enormity.

The years from 2015 to 2025 were the 11 warmest ever recorded, and the trend should continueaccording to this new report from this United Nations agency.

Met Office expert Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, added that the arrival of an El Niño climate episode, normally linked to high temperatures, is expected at the end of 2026, ““increases the odds that 2027 will be the next record year.”

The report for this five-year period also predicts that Arctic winter temperatures will be 2.8°C higher than the average for the period 1991-2020and that also in winter precipitation will be higher than normal at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere.

Precipitation patterns suggest increased likelihood of increased humidity in the Sahel, Alaska, northern Europe and Siberia, and “dry anomalies” over the Amazon, according to the report presented.

The WMO reminds that exceeding the 1.5°C limits in some year “does not mean that the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement are out of reach”, although these temporary exceedances are expected to occur more frequently.

The report synthesized predictions from 13 different institutions, including the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, the aforementioned Met Office and the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis.