Ballot between De la Espriella and Cepeda: “Colombia is going to move very strongly; it can stabilize or destabilize”

Colombiaa country mired in the worst wave of violence in the last decade, like many other nations in the region, will have to define on June 21 whether it is going to prolong the era of the left or turn towards the more conservative right after a tight first round of the presidential elections. With 99% of the votes counted, the millionaire Abelardo de la Espriella He achieved 43.7% and beat the official senator Ivan Cepeda (40,9%).

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Could it be said then that there was a weight of citizen security and public order in this conservative candidate, in what seems to be a moment of this trend in the region?

Yes, it could be. But it is paradoxical: Colombians are afraid of the left and war, but they are increasingly going out for walks and are buying more Teslas than ever, despite the fear of expropriation. It’s more of a narrative fear. The Colombian is a voter who is afraid of what is different. It is not a logic of real war as in 2002 or in 1990 against Pablo Escobar; It is a fear of something. It is an urban conflict. Colombia increasingly looks like a Latin American country with regional problems. It is not war alone. Furthermore, the “Venezuelanization” narrative is still present throughout the region and continues to win governments through fear, even though it did not happen in countries like Mexico or Brazil.

What groups of voters will be decisive in defining the June 21 runoff?

The first has already moved: the moderate right of Paloma Valencia (1,700,000 votes) has already gone with De la Espriella because they would never be with Cepeda. Now there is the center vote of Sergio Fajardo (one million votes) and Claudia López. They are in a serious discussion because they don’t like either of them, but the center as a political option disappeared in Colombia. If the center decides to take a stand, I think it would add more to Cepeda, although I don’t see it clearly. Fajardo could say that he will vote blank or “he will go whale watching.”

So, De la Espriella, for now, has the advantage…

With the support of Paloma Valencia, De la Espriella enters the runoff with an advantage of almost 2 million votes. Now, participation rose to 57% (24 million votes) and could reach 60%. While the big cities are very centralized with De la Espriella, there is a periphery (Guajira, Chocó, Amazonía) that did not vote before and is now mobilizing for the Petrist vote. The regional “electoral bosses” will go with De la Espriella due to his negotiating skills, while Cepeda must captivate the center that distrusts the left.