The Central Bank’s survey among economists stretches the trade surplus for the year to US$ 20,185 million

In the fifth survey of the year, those who participated in the REM estimated a monthly inflation of 2.3% for May, the same record as the previous month. Also They maintained the price increase forecast for the entire year at 30.5%.

For the following months, they anticipate inflation of 2.1% for June, 2% for July and 1.8% for August. The consumer price index would go to 19.9% ​​in 2027 – the election year – and would fall to 13.9% in 2028.

Furthermore, the group of REM analysts predicted that the Gross Product will have an expansion of 2.9%, an improvement of 0.1% compared to the previous measurement.

There were also no changes in the open unemployment rate since for the first quarter of 2026 it remained at 7.7% and they predict that it will drop to 7.4% for the fourth quarter of the year.

The median of the nominal exchange rate projections was located at $ 1.422 per dollar for the June 2026 average, 15 pesos less than in the previous report. For December, the group of participants predicted a nominal exchange rate of $ 1.658, which gives an expected interannual variation of 14.5%, almost half of the projected inflation.

Regarding foreign trade in goods, those participating in the REM expect that in 2026 exports will total US$ 98,547 million, an advance of US$2,491 million in relation to the previous survey. On the other hand, they foresee a decline in imports of US$ 1,187 million, that will lead them to end the year in US$ 78,363 million.

With these projections, the annual trade surplus would be US$20,185 millionan improvement of US$3,679 million with respect to the previous REM.

This is a consequence of the jump in exports. Already in April they had set a record for a month by placing themselves in US$8,914 million and now the REM estimates a higher figure for May, by taking them to US$8,938 million. The improvement in the harvest, together with the increase in energy and mining exports, give room for foreign trade to continue expanding. On the other hand, imports are lagging – they fell 4% in May – due to lower activity in the economy and consumption.

If this estimate is met, a new annual record for the surplus will be reached. Until now, the highest trade balance was in 2024, when in the midst of the recession imports fell by 17.5% and a favorable result was obtained US$ 18,899 million, the highest in absolute terms of those historically recorded.

Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal result of the National Non-Financial Public Sector carried out by those participating in the REM was a surplus of $16 billion by 2026, an improvement of 100 billion from the previous survey.

The survey was carried out between May 27 and 29 among 46 participants, among 34 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 financial entities in Argentina.