Why Trump’s threats against Iran don’t work

Donald Trumps If you follow a war on social media, you might think the matter was already over. “The tyrant of the Middle East is dead,” the US President announced on Wednesday: the mullahs were “completely defeated.”

The reality looks different. More than 100 days have passed since the US and Israel began Iran to bomb; more than 60, since Washington and Teheran agreed to a ceasefire. Since then, Trump has claimed dozens of times, just shy of one Deal to stand – which was usually followed by martial threats. In the last few days, this has escalated into new attacks: After Iranian drones shot down an Apache helicopter near Hormuz, the USA responded with massive air strikes – and Iran fired on the Gulf states again.

The Defense Minister said that this was not intended to usher in a new, heated phase of the war Pete Hegseththey just want to create pressure at the negotiating table. “If we have to negotiate with bombs, then we will negotiate with bombs.”

Alone: ​​The strategy doesn’t work. The economic situation in Iran has deteriorated massively; a million people have been unemployed since the start of the war and inflation is at 85 percent. But the regime does not waver because of this, but rather appears even more stubborn in the negotiations. Some observers estimate that the new attacks could even lead to Tehran abandoning the talks: “No military operation, be it limited or comprehensive, short or protracted, should force Iran to accept an agreement on US terms,” writes Danny Citrinowiczonce an Iran expert in Israeli military intelligence and now a fellow at Atlantic Council. A small group of hardliners have been vying for weeks to end the negotiations completely; They would get a tailwind from the new attacks.

Credibility crisis

Trump himself is under multiple pressures. In the USA, the hawks in his party are demanding results, but at the same time the war is highly unpopular among the population and is depressing his poll numbers because prices are also rising due to the closure of the road Hormus rise and rise.

In addition, Trump is putting his credibility as a dealmaker at risk – not only because of his inconsequential threats against the mullahs, but also because his words in Jerusalem no longer seem to have the weight they once had. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued his attacks against the Lebanese Hezbollah continued despite Trump’s anger. In doing so, he further torpedoed the prospects of a quick deal.