Volatile stocks open up ‘cheap’ investment opportunities

Stocks experienced a week of strong fluctuations. VN-Index decreased more than 47 points, the 4th consecutive week of adjustment. Market breadth this week tilted heavily to the negative side. Except for the industrial park and construction groups, which recovered slightly after a period of decline, most other industry groups decreased. Under strong adjustment pressure are real estate, telecommunications, technology, electricity, insurance, retail, steel, securities stocks… Liquidity always remains low, trading volume decreased for 3 consecutive weeks.

In a recent seminar of the investment consulting and trust unit FinSuccess, experts said that recent stock market developments, especially the correction of nearly 50 points at the beginning of the week, caused investor psychology to inevitably be disturbed and worried. However, from FinSuccess’s perspective, these “harsh” periods are when the market reveals valuable investment opportunities that are difficult to find under normal conditions.

CEO Nguyen Thanh Trung commented: “During my 10 years of working, I have seen this as a period with many investment opportunities at low valuations, while the internals of the business are very good.”

One of the core arguments that experts emphasize is the mismatch between stock prices and the real value of the business. While the overall score may be flat or down due to the impact of a few large stocks, the intrinsic quality of the majority of stocks has changed significantly. FinSuccess’s statistics show that many codes have appeared with “extremely attractive” valuations. Specifically, the number of stocks with a P/E index (market value over profit per share) of less than 10 times and P/B (market price over book value) of less than 1 time currently accounts for nearly 50% of the entire market.

This shows that the market is entering a period where the majority of assets are “for sale” at deep discounts. Experts point out that from the peak in 2022 until now, while the profits of many businesses have grown three times, stock prices have returned to historically low valuation areas.

Similar views have also been expressed recently by other analyst groups. In its market strategy report for the second half of the year, SSI Research cited historical data showing that periods of macroeconomic pressure and strong market fluctuations often open investment cycles with attractive returns.

Specifically, both 2011 and 2022 recorded high levels of systemic pressure, including sharp increases in inflation, monetary tightening, increased geopolitical risks and declining liquidity. However, in both cycles, the recovery afterward was strong. VN-Index increased by 60-80% in both the 2012-2014 and 2023-2025 periods, thereby creating a significant increase in assets for investors to accumulate positions during the adjustment period.

The context in 2026 now bears many of the familiar unfavorable characteristics of previous cycles, including rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and high levels of international geopolitical uncertainty. However, the current macroeconomic foundation is assessed by SSI Research to be significantly more resilient than previous periods, thanks to a clearly lower public debt burden, a more diverse economic structure and continued progress in legal and capital market reform. The analysis team believes that current market pressure is still under control and less systematic than the periods that paved the way for previous recoveries.

“For investors with a medium and long-term vision, 2026 could become an important accumulation period, when short-term volatility is obscuring more attractive valuation areas,” the report wrote.

SSI Research also forecasts that room for price increases may gradually open up as monetary conditions become less tight, profit growth returns to a more normal trajectory and structural dynamics, including the market upgrade cycle, begin to have a more obvious impact.

During the seminar, Mr. Vu Thanh Huy – Head of Portfolio Management Department – analyzed the probability of success when disbursing at the current price range based on quantitative statistical models of standard deviation. The results show that market valuations are below -1 standard deviation, an area that in the past only occurred about 15% of the time. In probability, this ratio can be understood as having an 85% chance that the price will increase again, while there is only about a 15% chance that the price may drop lower.

Regarding downside risk, experts say that in the worst scenario, the market could decrease by about 10%. However, when placing this 10% risk next to the 25-50% upside potential of many good stocks, the risk-to-reward ratio becomes “extremely worth the action”.

Instead of trying to accurately forecast short-term fluctuations that are full of chance, experts recommend that investors maintain their current position. Mr. Trung affirmed the viewpoint of “stay invested” (focus on investment). The reason for this strategy is because market sentiment is difficult to predict and can change quickly. If investors leave the market to wait for things to stabilize, they will often miss the best price range.

However, the above viewpoint does not mean recommending disbursement without filtering. During periods of strong volatility, stock selection should not be spread out but should be concentrated on businesses with good governance and high liquidity. The list prioritized by experts focuses on the VN30 group – businesses that have the ability to endure difficulties well and will be the group to recover stronger when the smart cash flow returns.

The just-released report of Beta Securities (BSI) also suggests that medium and long-term investors can be patient with positions with similar vision. At the same time, investors can consider accumulating shares of businesses with solid foundations, growth prospects in the second half of the year and are in price areas with a good margin of safety.

Short-term volatility, although causing temporary pain in terms of numbers on the account, is a “filter” to weed out impatient investors and open the door for those who see long-term value. “If we are patient during this period, when market sentiment changes, investors can be the ones with the highest performance,” FinSuccess CEO stated