On the way to opening the strait, in Europe they wink at Trump. And who is debating?

French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that the French aircraft carrier could be sent to the region “within days” for the proposed naval task force. The plan comes after the European countries avoided unequivocal support for the US and Israel in the war, and the move needs to receive a green light from both the US and Iran, and is dependent on the signing of an agreement to end the war between the countries.

The main issue is when will Hormuz open?

Despite the proposal, Europe fears that resuming the transportation of oil and gas and other materials through the Strait of Hormuz – even if an agreement on a 60-day ceasefire and the possibility of long-term peace is signed on Friday – will take weeks and maybe even months.

US President Donald Trump, on the other hand, said that traffic could resume “within days” from the moment the agreement is signed between the parties, and even stated that the crossing is already “semi-open”.

The European initiative aims to reduce the economic effect of the war in Iran on the continent, by restoring the situation to normal as quickly as possible. The increases in energy prices led to an increase in inflation on the continent, and fear of a chain effect that would lead to further price increases. About a fifth of global oil and gas traffic passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the start of the war in February. Although only 10% of European energy imports come from the Gulf, the global price increases of fossil fuels as a result of the blockade of the strait amounted to “excess” government expenditures of tens of billions of euros in energy purchases or energy subsidies for residents.

According to estimates by the Kpler business information company, at least 300 ships, half of them oil tankers, are still waiting to leave the Persian Gulf and there is a “similar number” of ships waiting to enter the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to load oil and other materials. The company estimated that if the ceasefire is maintained, and there are no other incidents, the movement of ships in a month through the strait will be about 40% of the average until the beginning of the war, which was about 100 ships a day.

While a senior official at the Japanese shipping company MOL told the British newspaper “Financial Times” this week that in his estimation the companies will be “wary” of a quick resumption of sailing, “in light of the experience of the last few weeks and contradictory statements”. He said that the companies themselves and the insurance companies are afraid of the resumption of fighting, after a series of twists and turns in the war in the last three months, and that they will need “guarantees” regarding a safe passage.

Macron is in favor, Germany is on the fence

According to experts, one of the problems that complicates free navigation in the strait and the maritime areas leading to it is the possibility and reasonable fear that the Iranians scattered sea mines during the war and now do not know how to locate them. European countries are now considering active participation – assuming the armed conflict between the parties is over – to try and deal with this threat.

Currently, countries such as Great Britain, France, Italy and Germany have expressed their willingness to send minesweepers to the area, as well as to secure commercial shipping with “convoys” that will protect the rogue ships with their technological means. The heads of these European countries published a statement on Monday in which they propose to send “a completely defensive, independent task force that will carry out mine clearance operations and secure commercial shipping in the area.”

French President Emmanuel Macron, who is currently hosting the 7G summit, has shown great eagerness in recent days to lead the naval mission, alongside Great Britain and its Prime Minister Keir Starmer. At the opening of the summit yesterday, Macron told the media that the aircraft carrier “Charles de Gaulle” and the group of ships and submarines accompanying it are already in the area (according to estimates they are in the Red Sea area, AA) and that a naval mission “could begin within two or three days”, assuming that the security situation in the area has “stabilized”. The Netherlands and Italy have also already sent ships to the area.

In contrast, in Germany they want to progress more slowly. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadpole expressed doubt that the fighting was completely over. “First of all, we need to know: Is the fighting completely over? Is it absolutely certain that both sides want other countries to act to remove mines?” he said in an interview.

According to him, after there is certainty about this, we need “the international legal basis for the activation of the task force, and then we will present the German basis for participation in such a force, and then we will bring the procedure for the approval of the parliament.” A procedure that may take a long time.

“Willingness to help”: the Trump reconciliation plan

Not only is the Iranian position regarding the placement of an international naval task force in the Strait of Hormuz unclear, but so is the American position. US President Donald Trump previously mocked European leaders who offered to send troops only as soon as the fighting ends, saying that it would be “too late”. He repeated the criticism yesterday at the opening of the summit of industrialized nations, saying that the US “won’t need a lot of help” to secure navigation in the Strait independently, but expressed readiness for the proposed mission. “I don’t think it would be a bad idea to have one or two ships there from other countries,” Trump said.

The European initiative is intended, among other things, to try and appease the American leader, who was furious at the cold shoulder on the part of Europe at the start of the war and threatened consequences for the NATO alliance critical to the continent’s security. “Our mission may not be desirable, and it may not be necessary,” Macron said yesterday, “but in any case, it symbolizes our willingness to help.” France in particular is interested in demonstrating dominance in the region, against the background of its trade and security ties. with the gulf countries.

The naval mission has been the subject of discussions over the past few months, led by Britain and France, which convened a series of virtual conferences with the participation of dozens of countries on the subject. Theoretically, Australia, South Korea and Japan could also participate in such a mission. The British government sent the destroyer “Dragon” to the area as well as an advanced minesweeper named Lyme Bay, which is skilled in operating with drones to remove mines. The Germans are considering sending a minesweeping ship named “Fulde” and a supply ship named “Mozel” to the mission. The German Defense Minister estimated that forces will also be sent to coordinate the mission and will be stationed in the Gulf countries.