The Government anticipated that June inflation would reach 2% and would mark the third consecutive month of decline

The presidential spokesperson stated it Adrian Ravierasked about how the Government saw the progress of inflation going forward. The new official first stated that would be in the order of 1.9%cited as a reference a study by the Libertad y Progreso Foundation (which projected 1.8%) and considered that it could be 2%, although he acknowledged that it is “difficult to know.”

Regarding President Javier Milei’s projection that monthly inflation would be less than 1% that month, Ravier responded that “things happened” in reference to “everything that happened pre-election.” In any case, Milei’s statement had taken place at the end of December, two months after the electoral victory of La Libertad Avanza.

In any case, the Casa Rosada expressed in this way that the official perspective is that inflation last month drilled 2% monthlysomething that hasn’t happened since August from last year, when it was 1.9%.

This is a faster inflationary deceleration than the market anticipated. According to the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank in which consulting firms, banks and investment funds participate, The CPI would have been 2.1% in June and would break 2% only in August.

The REM, however, may not reflect the most accurate projections. This happens because some consulting firms that do weekly price monitoring warned in recent days, with information from the end of June, that the indicator could actually give below 2%.

Economists who look closely at price variations observed some stability in food prices and a more moderate pace of rate updates than in the first months of the year.

“We hope that (the CPI) continues to decelerate. The close of June, which gives us 1.8%marks a significant slowdown in food and beverages. We have to be expectant regarding fuel, given the drop in the price of oil,” said Ricardo Delgado, from Analytica.

“We estimate that June cwill err by 1.9%. We expect something similar for July, seasonal increases must be taken into account. Fuels are stable, meat is declining a little and other items such as appliances and cars are also stable,” María Castiglioni, from C&T, reviewed.

“By June we anticipate that perforates el 2%. “July has seasonal impacts with tourism and the World Cup, and we will have to see how they work,” analyzed Dante Sica, from Abeceb.

“We hope 2% for Junewhich is usually a seasonally low month. There is probably a slight increase due to the winter holidays in July, but that would be offset by a slowdown in August and September. The depreciation of the peso due to the rise of the dollar in June takes a while to impact all goods and services. We will have to follow its evolution,” said Aldo Abram, from Libertad y Progreso.

“We see June below 2%. We will have to see in July how the dollar and oil and commodity prices move,” concluded Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, from Equilibra.

Orlando Ferreres, meanwhile, placed his estimate above 2%. “June inflation was 2.1% monthly and registered a year-on-year growth of 31.4%. On the other hand, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 2.1%, marking an increase of 28.3% annually,” he said in a report this Tuesday.