La Jornada: Investment by foreigners in Mexican bonds increases

The holding of Mexican government securities in the hands of foreign investors increased by 42,350 million pesos during the first half of 2026 over the level reported at the end of 2025, according to figures from the Bank of Mexico (BdeM).

The total amount went from one trillion 739 thousand 824 million pesos on December 31 to one trillion 782 thousand 174 million pesos at the end of June, thereby interrupting the withdrawal of foreign capital in domestic debt bonds that had predominated during the second half of the previous year.

The rebound is mainly explained by interest in M ​​Bonds, whose foreign holdings grew by 20,275 million pesos in the semester, and in Cetes, which added an additional 17,851 million pesos. Other instruments, including Udibonos, registered outflows that moderated the advance of the total.

The monthly behavior showed marked variations. In January, 30,420 million pesos entered, and in February the figure rose to 36,447 million. March reversed the trend with an outflow of 20,984 million pesos, while April closed almost unchanged, with an inflow of 2,758 million.

May recorded a new capital outflow of 12,96 million pesos, although June recovered ground with an income of 5,805 million, according to data consulted by Monex with information from the central bank.

With these results, foreign holdings closed the semester at one trillion 782 thousand 174 million pesos, equivalent to 11.4 percent of the total government securities in circulation, according to an analysis by Monex.

The country’s residents concentrated the rest, with 13 trillion 820 billion pesos, after an annual increase of 12 percent. Siefores, investment companies and the banking sector had the greatest participation, with an average expansion of 16.1 percent compared to June 2025.

In its annual comparison, the ownership of foreigners showed a different behavior from that of the semester. At the end of June, the amount was 7,847 million pesos less than that registered in the same month of 2025, a drop of 0.4 percent, according to the Monex report.

The difference responds to the fact that the semester started from low levels after the capital outflow observed during a good part of last year, when between June and December foreign holdings fell by 50,197 million pesos, according to the same central bank series.

The composition of the holding also changed within the month. The M Bonds advanced 1.2 percent compared to May, while the Cetes fell 3.2 percent, after this instrument reached an annual maximum of 221.6 billion pesos on June 5.

Monex analysts interpret the adjustment as a profit taking towards longer duration instruments, after the confirmation of a prolonged restrictive stance by the central bank returned the attractiveness of the middle and long section of the curve.

The monetary policy decision also influenced the movement. The central bank maintained its reference rate at 6.5 percent during June and the Governing Board considered that level adequate to face the challenges of the macroeconomic environment. For Monex, the spread against the US Federal Reserve continues to consolidate as the main support for the local currency and could maintain the attractiveness of investment strategies. carry trade with pesos in long-term bonds.

For the coming months, the behavior of foreign holdings will depend on the adjustments in this rate differential and the speed with which other central banks of emerging economies move their own reference levels, while the BdeM maintains its flexibilization cycle paused.