Covid, peak of cases in China today: what it depends on

Chinese media report that in the week from 13 to 19 July the rate of positive Covid tests in patients with respiratory symptoms reached 16.3%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous 7 days, and in the week from 20 July the figure grew by another 4 percentage points, reaching 20.3%. The positivity rate was higher in the southern provinces than in the northern regions, and the most affected age group ranges from 15 to 59 years. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention highlighted that most patients experienced mild symptoms. According to the latest update from the Chinese CDC, after the increase in recent weeks, viral activity remains at moderate levels. The coronavirus variant circulating is NB.1.8.1.

Covid-19 has become a common respiratory disease that tends to trigger one or two epidemic fluctuations each year, the agency explained. The current increase, he reassures, represents a normal periodic fluctuation and its intensity is similar to that observed in the previous 2 years. The elderly and people with pre-existing chronic conditions remain at greater risk of developing a severe form of the disease, but targeted and effective therapies are available. the Chinese CDC underlined. The authority also specified that no variants of the virus have been detected that represent a significant risk to public health, and that in general the sharp increase in infections has not caused pressure on health services.

But how should this rise in Covid in China be interpreted?

For the virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco is “a further reminder of the fact that Sars-CoV-2 continues to circulate globally and can cause new waves even during the summer months. The situation described by the Chinese health authorities does not, at present, indicate the appearance of a variant capable of radically modifying the epidemiological scenario, nor does it highlight an increase in the severity of the disease”, underlines the director of the School of Specialization in Hygiene and Preventive Medicine of the State University of Milan. “It is rather yet another demonstration of the virus’s ability to adapt and continue to spread in a population in which immune protection physiologically tends to reduce over time.” In short, for the expert, “it is not the moment for alarmism, but for vigilance”. the summer”. This is why “epidemiological and virological surveillance represents an essential tool for promptly identifying any changes in the behavior of the virus and for monitoring the impact on the most vulnerable segments of the population”.who continue to be those most exposed to the risk of developing severe forms of the disease. For these subjects, it is essential to maintain high protection through the recommended vaccination campaigns and adopt prudent behavior in the presence of respiratory symptoms. Wearing a mask when you are sick or when you frequent environments with particularly fragile people remains a gesture of individual and collective responsibility”, points out the virologist.

“The experience gained in recent years – reflects Pregliasco – demonstrates how the management of Covid must now be based on a model of conscious coexistence with the virus, based on continuous monitoring, targeted prevention and the response capacity of the healthcare system. The pandemic has taught us that underestimating the circulation of a respiratory virus can have important consequences. Today we have much more effective tools to contain its effects: we must continue to use them with balance, without creating alarmism, but without even considering the problem definitively overcome. The Chinese situation therefore represents above all a reminder of the importance of maintaining efficient international surveillance systems, which are essential for following the evolution of the virus and ensuring a timely response should variants with different characteristics emerge than those currently circulating”, concludes the past president of Anpas and vice president of Samaritan International.