New heat waves await us? DHMZ issued a warning about heat, heavy rains and fires

According to the State Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ), referring to the latest global seasonal forecast of the WMO, El Niño will reach the proportions of a powerful climate event in the period from August to October. The forecasts of the world’s leading meteorological centers show that the surface temperature in the central and eastern part of the Pacific Ocean must be more than 2.9 degrees Celsius above average, which will affect weather conditions all over the planet.

For Europe, this means a very high probability of the continuation of above-average warm weather, especially in the south of the continent. Southern Europe is precisely among the areas for which the WMO predicts the greatest prospects for temperatures higher than usual. Since Croatia is partially in that zone, it is likely that periods of very high temperatures will continue here, while changed precipitation patterns could bring more severe weather extremes.

Meteorologists stress that El Niño will not act alone. Its effect will be further strengthened by the record-warming oceans and the positive dipole of the Indian Ocean, a climate pattern that also greatly affects the distribution of precipitation and temperatures. The combination of these factors increases the possibility of droughts, floods and large forest fires in many parts of the world.

The Secretary General of the United Nations António Guterres warned that El Niño is no longer a threat that is yet to come, but a phenomenon činčinci moreć they feel.

– El Niño is not at the door, but moreć there is also a rise in temperature. This is just the prelude. We are witnessing thermal domes, catastrophic forest fires and record-warm seas. If we do not act immediately, the consequences will become even more deadly – said Guterres.

A similar message was sent by WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo, who emphasized that forecasts alone cannot prevent disasters, but they can help countries prepare in time.

– El Niño develops in a period of unprecedentedly warm oceans and increasingly higher global temperatures. Governments and local communities still have time to assess the risks and take measures before the consequences are fully felt – Saulo said.

Forecasts for the period from August to October also show changes in the amount of precipitation. More rain than average is expected in southern Europe, while the north of the continent could be drier than usual. Such distribution increases the possibility of locally heavy downpours and floods in certain parts of the Mediterranean.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs due to the warming of the surface layer of the sea in the central and eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. Although it develops thousands of kilometers from Europe, its influence through atmospheric currents changes weather patterns almost on the entire planet. It appears every two to seven years, most often it lasts between nine and twelve months, and the greatest impact on global temperatures is usually achieved in the year after the start of development.

WMO emphasizes that no El Niño is exactly the same and that its effects depend on several climatic factors. Nevertheless, this year’s development took place in a period of record warm oceans and more of pronounced global warming, due to which experts warn that weather extremes in the coming months could be more pronounced than during average years.