Is Europe heading towards gas shortages?

This one Spring after the end of the heating season, were Europe’s Gas storage empty as always – the winter was cold, consumption was high, and if it had been a normal year, the gas companies would have started storing gas everywhere.

Dank Donald Trump But 2026 was not a year like any other. Because he had Iran bombed, the mullahs the Strait of Hormus locked out, essential liquid gas was missing Train on the market – and that caused gas prices to skyrocket. Storing it didn’t pay off – it would simply have been uneconomical.

„Winterpanik“

Six months and a very hot summer later, this is now fueling the “winter panic” in Europe, as the Swedish bank SEB calls it in a gas market analysis: Because the hot summer further depleted gas stocks – 17 percent of Europe’s electricity still comes from gas-fired power plants, and Europe’s air conditioning systems are known to be working at full speed – the continent’s gas storage facilities are more empty than they have been in years.

On average in the EU they are just closed 62 percent filled, which is the worst value since 2011. At the same time last year, they were a full 12 percentage points higher. The levels won’t rise too quickly either: prices have risen continuously since spring, making storage increasingly less economical.

This is already causing heated political debates among our German neighbors. Deutschland is the continent’s largest consumer due to its gas-intensive industry; the already sputtering economy depends heavily on the price of gas. Because the save states there are included 50.7 percent are still well below the EU level, the gas network operators have now warned of bottlenecks in the winter, and calls for government intervention, such as support purchases, are coming from the opposition. But Berlin is saying categorically no to this for now, because they are resisting market interventions. Even if this has certainly happened to other conservative to right-wing ruled states such as the Netherlands or Italy.

Austria is doing better

In Austria the situation is less relaxed than in Germany. The gas storage facilities here are 65.2 percent full, which is 15 percentage points less than in the previous year, but still significantly more than in Germany.

Supply shortages Nobody in this country expects that. What can be expected, however, are price increases for end customers: Even if Austria hardly purchases any liquid gas from Qatar – the majority of the gas comes via pipelines from Norway and is liquefied by ship from the USA – local entrepreneurs are feeling the high world market price due to Qatar’s failure. The wholesale price has doubled since August 2025 and is at its highest level since 2023.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the price is likely to rise significantly, experts say. Since Trump’s recent announcement that he would once again tighten the economic thumbscrews on Iran, no one is expecting the mullahs to… Teheran The road should be opened quickly – the closure will probably remain in place until the beginning of 2027.

This in turn exacerbates what is already going on Bidding competition about the LNG that has already been loaded onto ships. Europe is competing primarily with Asia – but unlike there, our continent is feeling political pressure: The EU is writing to its members a gas storage level of by November 1st 80 percent otherwise there will be penalties.

Spiral upwards

Many companies will therefore make “forced purchases” and purchase gas at uneconomic prices. This could in turn trigger an upward price spiral, one says Reuters-Analysis: The current wholesale price – just under 70 euros per megawatt hour – should at least be up 110 Euro climb. In extreme cases there are even 210 Euro conceivable – especially when the winter gets cold and demand increases massively.

This will be particularly felt by households that do not have a fixed-price gas contract – a scenario similar to that seen after Putin’s invasion Ukraine. At that time the wholesale price rose to more than 300 euros.