Researcher: Donald Trump is desperate – “Absolutely the biggest foreign policy mistake”

A respected researcher of geopolitics, director of the Eurasia Group, which analyzes political risks Ian Bremer interprets the President of the United States Donald Trump’s to be desperate right now after the Iran war has turned out to be much more difficult than the White House anticipated.

“Donald Trump thought the war would be over in a few days, but he seriously misjudged the ability of the Iranians to respond,” Bremmer commented at the American Columbia University’s Global Energy Summit in New York.

“It’s already easy to say that this is definitely the biggest foreign policy mistake that Donald Trump has made so far as president,” he continued.

United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoffin and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushnerin is expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital Islamabad later on Saturday for talks with the Iranians. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is already in Pakistan according to news agencies.

The White House has said that American negotiators are supposed to hold direct talks with the Iranians. However, according to Iranian sources, the negotiators are not supposed to meet face to face. Among other things, the news covered the matter CNN.

“Pretty massive” longer-term economic effects

According to Ian Bremmer, Trump now desperately wants to get into a situation where he can declare himself the winner. It means that the final result of the negotiations with Iran must be some kind of agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and ending uranium enrichment. According to Bremmer, if this is not achieved, the situation will be a disaster for the US president.

He emphasizes that it is already clear that the consequences of the Iran war in general are far from what the White House was aiming for.

“If and when an agreement with Iran is reached, I’m pretty sure that what Trump declares to be agreed is not what Iran thinks it agreed to. In addition, the Iranian leadership may not implement any agreement, even if it accepts things on paper. Right now, many signs are saying that whatever the future agreement is, it will not hold. It directly means that the longer-term economic effects both for the United States and globally will be quite massive,” Bremmer estimated.

He says directly that the economic effects of the Iran war can already be a matter of global vulnerability, which has been “really badly” underestimated.

“When the United States refuses to be the guarantor of the security of its allies or the guarantor of the freedom of world trade, and no one is able to respond, in this environment the entire world economy is vulnerable because of this destructive policy.”

“Strategic failure by any standard”

Johns Hopkins University professor, director of the Italian International Policy Institute IAI Nathalie Toccin the analysis is similar.

“In short: Trump is desperate for a deal, but the only compromise available is far less favorable to Washington than what could have been achieved before the war. A strategic failure by any standard,” he says.

At the same time, according to Tocci, Iranians are even more convinced that they have a higher pain threshold than the United States, but also that they still have cards to play. The researcher especially highlights the possibility of closing the Bab el Mandeb strait in the Red Sea.

Bab el Mandeb is a strategically important strait that leads to the Mediterranean Sea. Like the Strait of Hormuz, it is a key energy route through which considerable quantities of crude oil and natural gas pass to Europe and the rest of the world.

According to both Bremmer and Tocc, the Houthi rebels’ help is needed to close Bab el Mandeb. Ian Bremmer reminds us that Yemen’s Houthi leaders have already told that they are ready to close the strait and support Iran.