Uncertainty is the new customs wall between Europe and the United States

From the reader. The economic relationship between Europe and the United States is used to be considered a stable backbone in the world economy. Now a phenomenon is growing under the surface, which is already commonplace for companies: uncertainty has become a new barrier to trade. Customs policy can change overnight and market access increasingly depends on political whims. It is no longer about individual disputes, but about structural risk.

The EU and the United States still have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world. Europe exports more than 500 billion euros worth of goods there per year, sustaining jobs in industry, technology, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and services.

Still, companies have to monitor daily changing customs listings and court rulings to determine whether their product can cross the border tomorrow. This indicates that the system is not working as it should.

The Turnberry agreement was supposed to restore confidence after years of disputes, but it too threatens to fall victim to the accelerating customs chaos. Analysts have noted that US trade policy is increasingly leaning towards industrial strategy and domestic employment goals rather than traditional market access. The first victim of this trend is Europe’s own industrial base.

Europe must speak with one voice

The EU’s strength in trade policy is unity. Therefore, Europe must speak with one voice and demand legal certainty and predictability of customs. Businesses do not expect protection from all geopolitical shocks, but they do expect the EU to manage them consistently.

At the same time, Europe must strengthen its own competitiveness. That means it needs to speed up trade deals, deepen partnerships and diversify markets to reduce dependence on transatlantic trade.

Otherwise, the danger is not a sudden collapse but a slow fading, i.e. investments flowing elsewhere and supply chains being built elsewhere.

Tariffs don’t usually destroy trade overnight. Uncertainty can slowly change its direction for decades.

Mira-Maria Consultant

Chair, Monitoring Committee on International Trade of the European Economic and Social Committee

Stefano Mallia

vice-chairman, Monitoring Committee on Transatlantic Relations of the European Economic and Social Committee