The next move of Elon Musk The markets focus all the attention of global investors. This Friday, The magnate’s aerospace company, SpaceX, will make what is expected to be the largest stock market debut in history. The company seeks to raise US$75 billion and the operation worries the market, concerned about the impact of this offer on the liquidity of global investor capital.
In this way, the capital sought triples that raised by the two largest IPOs (Initial Share Offering) in history so far: in 2014, Alibaba raised US$25 billion in its IPO; while five years later, in 2019, the oil company Saudi Aramco surpassed this mark by raising US$25.6 billion in its debut on the stock market.
The operation stands out not only for its size. The market’s doubts are placed on the pricing, That is, the final valuation per share that the company that decides to begin operating on the stock market will have almost a quarter of a century after its creation. It is estimated that SpaceX will be listed this Friday with a price close to US$135 per share. The company plans to offer 555,555,555 shares of common stock, implying a market capitalization of approximately US$1.75 billion.
However, The final price will only be confirmed on Thursday.l. Guido Valli, head of Investment Operations at the wealth manager FDI, commented: “The market’s main doubt is whether The valuation of the company will be validated. Unlike Elon Musk, the financial services company Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billionwhich equates to about $63 per share. This figure represents less than half of its target capitalization for its IPO of $135 per share. “That’s what the market will try to settle at the end of the week.”
The company will only offer 4% of its shares to the market and the bet, although risky, tempts retail investors. Martín Cordeviola, from PPI, highlighted: “At a global level there is “some fear about what it may imply in terms of liquidity”
If SpaceX manages to enter the club of the 10 most valuable companies on the planet “on the move”, It will force many investment funds to rebalance their portfolios. This includes both those who mechanically imitate stock market indices and those who seek to beat the market, since none of them will want to be left out or lose ground against their competition, Cordevoila explained.
Analysts expect the SpaceX launch to add more volatility in the coming days to the stock markets. The operation could revalue AI providers, such as Nvidia, and space comparables with Tesla dragged by the halo/contagion effect. But, if the operation is not in line with what the market expects, greater noise cannot be ruled out.
Valli noted: “SpaceX’s exit will be, more than anything, a thermometer for the market before the IA. If it turns out well, it will set the pulse for the other IPOs in the sector, such as those of Open IA or Anthropic, owner of Claude. Otherwise, it could represent a blow to this industry, just at a time when it is being analyzed whether these high-growth companies are not reaching a bubble.”
For his part, Paulino Seoane, director of Investment Strategy at Balanz, summarized: “SpaceX is Elon Musk’s most personal project and is closing its project written a long time ago called ProjectX that consolidates all its companies into one. “It is not just another investment, it is a new project, about something that does not yet exist, in short a very personal bet on Elon Musk’s vision.”
From the local point of view, in the event that the placement is successful, the impact seems limited. “The risk for Argentina could appear indirectly if the IPO goes wrong and generates some liquidity event in the market that activates a global risk off and hits the spreads of emerging credits. But if the IPO goes out orderly, as everything indicates so far, the local impact should be minimal,” said Cordeviola.