La Jornada: There are positive signs for investment, but more is needed, highlights Banamex

The Mexican government has sent positive signals about its openness to attract more private investment; However, more forceful actions are required in order to “turn around” the deterioration in the confidence that private sector agents have, confirmed the economic studies area of ​​Banamex.

Iván Arias, director of economic studies at Banamex, considered that the country’s public finances will deteriorate in the following years and public debt will increase more than expected, which is why it is essential to enhance growth.

“It is true that the government continues to send positive signals of openness to private investment, such as the issue of facilitation of procedures, investment announcements in the electricity sector; this news is very welcome, however, we still have reservations about the impact it may have.

“More forceful actions are needed to turn around the deterioration of confidence in the private sector to invest. If this is achieved, it would result not only in greater economic growth in the short term, but also in greater potential in the medium term,” the expert argued at a conference.

According to their estimates, Mexico’s public debt will reach a proportion of 56 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and not 55 percent as estimated by the Treasury.

Therefore, if growth is promoted through more forceful actions to open the door to the private sector “some relief would be given to public finances through greater collection. Public finances also require that tax revenues be shored up and that current spending and Petróleos Mexicanos be given sustainability.”

Separately, Rodolfo Ostolaza, deputy director of economic studies at Banamex, considered that the decision to make annual reviews of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) generates, to a certain extent, a lower level of uncertainty to make investments.

“The T-MEC is not over. It was simply not ratified for 16 years, but it is still alive 10 years from now and every year we are going to be getting together to say what we want and what we don’t. The treaty is still in force. More than uncertainty it gives us negative certainty. That helps at least investment decisions,” he explained.

He recalled that the United States’ decision was already factored into its economic forecasts.

Competitive advantage

In an analysis, BBVA indicated that the scenario for Mexico regarding the revision of the USMCA remains favorable, as the country maintains one of the lowest levels of trade protection among the United States’ main partners, which preserves a competitive advantage for Mexican exports.

He added that Mexico consolidated itself as the main trading partner of the United States, after its exports grew 5.8 percent in 2025 and represented more than 15 percent of that country’s imports. In addition, strong integration in sectors such as automotive, electrical equipment, medical devices and manufacturing reduces the probability of an abrupt breakdown of the agreement.

BBVA maintained that even if an immediate extension is not finalized, the USMCA will remain in force until 2036 and tariff preferences will continue to apply to goods that comply with the rules of origin, so the most likely scenario is continuity.