Iran is targeting the soft underbelly of the Americans, and that is not Israel

behind the attacks

Dr. Yoel Gozhansky, head of the Gulf Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former senior member of the Israeli Defense Forces, explains that the attacks are not only related to the Hormuz issue. According to him, it is not impossible that the goal is to collect more money as part of the Iranian protection system. “We have been in the same dynamic for some time. There was a short break with most of the countries, but Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan have been under fire for a long time. They are launching to the most vulnerable place, the Gulf countries and merchant ships. Iran wants to exact a price from the global economy and the US.”

In the last day Kuwait reported the interception of “hostile targets”; In Bahrain they announced “explosions”; In the United Arab Emirates, an alert was issued against the launch of missiles and UAVs; in Oman, according to the Islamic Republic, American-owned logistics complexes that serve ships and refueling complexes in the port of Daqam were destroyed; in Jordan, three missiles hit; and in Qatar, the target of the attack was al-Udeid – the largest American air force base outside the United States.

“The Iranians are looking at the Gulf states as a new area of ​​influence, and as the soft underbelly of the Americans,” emphasizes Dr. Meir Javdenfer, a researcher at the Lauder School of Government at Reichman University.

Not aimed at Israel

“The Iranians are too weak against the US, but against the Gulf they are strong. Thus, they hope to impose the status quo they are trying to create in Hormuz, which will allow them to collect fees. The Iranians are also willing to pay a price, in order for the Americans to accept it.”

In the background of the Iranian pressure are the mid-term elections for the US House of Representatives. In the event that the war of attrition in the Hormuz area continues until the elections in November 2026 – Trump is expected to lose not only the majority in the House of Representatives. The Senate will also switch to the Democratic side, and Trump will find himself for the past two years as a “hands-tied” president.

However, given Trump’s temperament, a direct threat poses some concern to the Iranians. On Saturday, Trump wrote on his social media network, Truth, that “over a thousand missiles are aimed at Iran. If Iran tries to carry out its plan to assassinate a sitting American president, the American military is ready for a counterattack.

In the new round of attacks, it is evident that Iranians are refraining, for the time being, from attacking Israel. An essential part of the reason is the severe leadership, security and economic damage caused to the Ayatollah regime, as a result of Operation Roar of the Lion against Israel and the USA in full force.

According to the assessment of the Central Bank of Iran, the extent of the damage in the Islamic Republic is about 270 billion dollars, while the work of restoration will last about 12 years.

Aviram Blaish, vice president of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs, defines the Iranian choice not to attack Israel as: the question of cheap and expensive. “The Iranians ask ‘what is cheap for us? and what is expensive for the Americans?’

The Gulf meets the category, due to the lack of a significant response. Beyond that, the Iranians understand that despite the American attacks, the US is not interested in escalation beyond a return to negotiations. The attack on the tanker by the Revolutionary Guards is not in a vacuum, they understand that it is a tool for negotiations.”

A significant challenge that affects Iran’s aggression, which is limited to the Gulf states and Jordan, also lies in the ranges. While Israel has launched missiles with a range of about 2,500-1,500 km, the Gulf countries have enough – in most cases – missiles for about 300 km.

The quantities of Iranian missiles in general and the missiles with a range for Israel in particular are also greatly affected by the damage caused to the Islamic Republic during the war. Each missile was created from a production chain of components from various defense companies in Iran, all of which were targets of Israeli attacks during the war. Estimates in the security establishment are that the work of restoring the Iranian production chains will take years.

However, the Revolutionary Guards still possess a number of missiles that could challenge the Israeli air defense system. Therefore, the alertness and preparations in the Air Force have not stopped even since the establishment of the ceasefire.

“For the Iranians, it is much cheaper to attack the Gulfs,” notes Dr. Javdanfar.

“This does not mean that Israel will not be attacked. The Iranians want to impose on the Persian Gulf a situation where, as Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded from Ukraine not to take any strategic decision that would challenge Russia’s security, economic and political interests, that is what will happen in this case.”

The benefit versus the risk

Dr. Gozhansky, who among other things coordinated the handling of the Iran issue at the UN, says that Tehran is not interested in another country attacking them.

“They know that if they launch into Israel, then there will be a regional war and Israel will have an excuse to attack. Israel is, at times, more lethal and sophisticated than the Americans. Israel did the countermeasures at the beginning of the war. Even if the Persians attack quietly, in part, no one takes responsibility.”

Aviram Blaish concludes that the Ayatollah regime is also aware that Israel is in an election period, and would be happy to improve its status. “Iran apparently has a new leader, and he is being tested strongly.

From the other side of the gulf, countries in the region bow to Tehran. For the Islamic Republic, the prices are not expensive, but the Qataris do not want to go back to square one. The Iranian benefit outweighs the risk, as those who manage the event are the Revolutionary Guards.

“In the Ayatollah regime, we also know that the Americans’ ability to withstand casualties is low. Unfortunately, in Israel we understand that in war there are victims, and we still see how the home front suffers. The Americans find it difficult to do this.”