La Jornada: War conflicts move millions of dollars in online betting

The war in Iran and the consequences of the attacks by the United States and Israel on the Islamic country have become one of the recurring themes in the contracts negotiated on Polymarket, with an operating volume close to 177 million dollars, according to data from active contracts on the platform internationally.

“Will the United States invade Iran before 2027?” It is one of the questions with which we bet and has registered a volume of operations of up to 44 million dollars, a figure that only shows how much has been moved in this market and not the current liquidity of the contract, as seen on the website.

The incursion of the United States into foreign territory is one of the bets open on the platform, but the diversity extends to at least 43 of the active prediction contracts linked to the conflict and for which the equivalent of 176 million 928 thousand 838 dollars has been moved.

Several contracts have already expired, so the volume of transactions since the conflict began is considerably higher.

“How many different countries will Israel attack in 2026?”

The range of bets on the conflict in the Middle East includes questions ranging from “Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei before…?” and “Will the United States officially declare war on Iran before…?”, to the place where a new round of negotiations would take place between the parties or the number of ships that will pass through the Strait of Hormuz at certain deadlines: July 31, August 31, December 31.

The region, in light of these markets as an area to be pigeonholed in conflict through gambling, also has contracts that raise the debate: “how many different countries will Israel attack in 2026”, with the majority of bets loaded on number four.

Prediction contracts are usually based on scenarios where there are only two probabilities, although they are also open to several options. The value of these contracts ranges from zero to one dollar.

In the case of Polymarket, which works with an unregulated international platform through the use of blockchaintransactions are carried out in USD coin, a stable cryptocurrency that is known in the digital environment as stablecoinwhich is equivalent to one dollar.

An unregulated niche

These types of bets are just a sketch of the extent of prediction markets, a niche that is not regulated. Even though Polymarket was born in New York, it is not open to the United States, and a parallel platform even had to be created so that users in that country can access it.

This dual platform is due to the fact that in 2022, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) imposed a fine of $1.4 million on Polymarket because it determined that it was illegally operating derivatives trading without authorization.

Hence, Polymarket supposedly has two markets, one international and the other in the United States. However, the push for this type of prediction markets comes from those closest to the current president of that country.

Last year, after Polymarket acquired the QCEX clearing house, which allows it to operate within a framework recognized by the CFTC, the investment firm 1789 Capital, of which Donald Trump Jr, the eldest son of the current US president, is a partner, invested in the platform.

CFTC: it is a market for financial instruments

The regulation of this type of platforms is still in its infancy, not only because of the ethical sphere – how accessible they have made betting on war outcomes and other areas in which privileged information is presumed – but because in itself it implies a legal vacuum in which the states are fighting with the federal regulator, the CFTC.

At least nine state administrations have proposed the regulation of this type of platforms within their jurisdiction, given that they are considered mere bets, while the federal regulator assures that it is a market for financial instruments.