Car expert: “You can make VW more like Škoda”

“For the full year 2026, we expect a robust result above the previous year’s level in a challenging environment,” says VW boss Oliver Blume. “At the same time, the environment for the automotive industry remains extremely challenging: geopolitical crises, trade conflicts, high regulatory requirements, volatile markets and increased competition.”

Picture book company

The German car expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer sees Volkswagen in a better position than recently portrayed.

“VW is better than many people think when you look at Škoda, for example,” says Dudenhöffer to KURIER. The Czech subsidiary is a “picture-perfect company” – with the same cars as VW, only at more attractive prices. In the first half of the year, Škoda increased car sales by 9.1 percent to 555,700 vehicles and sales by 6.3 percent to 16 billion euros. The return on sales of 8.5 percent is impressive.

The crucial difference to VW: “The Škodas are not produced in Germany.” This is exactly where Dudenhöffer sees VW’s core problem: production costs that are too high in Germany, coupled with an organizational structure that blocks change.

“Lower Saxony and the union have the majority.”

“VW is institutionally paralyzed,” says the expert. Equal co-determination on the supervisory board gives the union 50 percent of the seats, the state of Lower Saxony holds a further 20 percent: “Lower Saxony and the union have the majority.” Unlike BMW or Mercedes, the chairman of the supervisory board cannot rule through. Added to this is the VW law, which creates additional hurdles. Dudenhöffer therefore considers radical cuts at VW to be unrealistic. “You won’t be able to cut 100,000 jobs,” says the automobile professor. The recently discussed proposal to close four plants “will not work politically”. Instead, he expects compromises: “You can make VW a little more like Škoda, but not 100 percent. If you could do that, you would be at Toyota.” Last year the Japanese made a profit of 30 billion euros.

When it comes to the second major problem area, the Chinese business, Dudenhöffer is more relaxed. The sales decline of 37 percent is dramatic, but there are understandable reasons: VW has stopped promoting sales of old models, new models have only been in dealers since May. “You have to give the strategy time,” says the expert from Bochum. He expects a stabilization in the second half of the year, with models starting at the equivalent of 15,000 euros to follow next year.

Decisions by the end of the year?

Meanwhile, VW boss Oliver Blume is aiming to have his new savings package for the group approved this year. His goal is to make resolutions in the Supervisory Board by the end of the year.

“We assume that we will be a long way there by the end of the year,” said Blume. Two weeks ago, the savings plans were discussed for the first time in the VW supervisory board and met with resistance from employee representatives and the state of Lower Saxony, which has a stake in VW. Four plants and up to 50,000 additional jobs are at risk. The company had previously initiated the elimination of 50,000 jobs.

“There were very constructive but also controversial discussions in the supervisory board. We have not yet been able to make a comprehensive decision there,” said Blume. “This is not just a savings package, it is the most comprehensive and far-reaching transformation package that we have ever put in place in the Volkswagen Group.” Postscript: “We have no time to lose, especially in this risk scenario.”