La Jornada: With 2.1%, the economy had its greatest annual advance since 2023

The Mexican economy managed to accelerate its growth rate between April and June of this year, which could be its greatest quarterly advance since 2020.

The country’s economic activity advanced 1.5 percent in real terms at a quarterly rate, after contracting 0.6 percent in the first three months of the year, according to data from the timely estimate of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026, released this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

In annual terms, GDP rose 2.1 percent in real terms, its best annual advance since the third quarter of 2023, with seasonally adjusted figures to make the periods more comparable.

The timely GDP estimate was slightly higher than analysts’ forecast of growth of around 1.3 percent quarterly and 1.6 percent annually.

“The figures so far point to a general rebound, with various factors at play. We highlight a significant recovery in construction, as well as a certain boost from the World Cup at the end of the period,” highlighted Alejandro Padilla Santana, deputy general director of economic and financial analysis at Banorte.

The quarterly progress of the economy was fundamentally supported by household consumption and demand from the Soccer World Cup, given that tertiary activities (services and commerce) accelerated their growth by 1.5 and 2.5 percent quarterly and annually, respectively, in the period April-June 2026.

The primary sector – made up of agriculture, livestock, forestry, hunting and fishing – rebounded 3.3 percent compared to the first quarter of the year, when it contracted 1.7 percent, while compared to the second quarter of 2025 it shot up 7.3 percent.

The secondary sector (industry) improved in the second quarter of the year, with quarterly growth of 1.6 percent after its previous drop of one percent, while in the last 12 months it rose 0.8 percent, after the annual contraction of 1.1 percent reported in January-March of the year.

This dynamism allowed the evolution of the country’s economic activity until June, for the year as a whole, to grow 1.2 percent, accompanied by an advance in two of the three main economic sectors: primary (3.8 percent) and tertiary (1.8 percent), while the secondary showed a contraction of 0.8 percent. With original figures, product growth accelerated to 2.2 percent annually, a two-year high.

Fragile foundations

Víctor Gómez, chief economist of Finamex, explained that the national economy is moving in two opposite directions: an economy of activity (services, commerce, imported consumption), which is recovering, and one of capacity (private investment, manufacturing, domestic capital goods), which continues to show signs of tension.

“The primary sector reported the greatest quarterly and annual progress. This data produces a positive arithmetic effect on the volume of production for the year. Consumption continues to be the trigger (…) growth based on consumption is not ideal to strengthen the productive capacity of the economy,” said Alfredo Coutiño, director for Latin America at Moody’s Analytics, an independent sovereign risk firm.

“Looking ahead, the momentum related to the World Cup will fade, with weak domestic demand once again becoming the main driver of growth prospects of 1.2 percent this 2026,” predicts Saide Salazar, economic analyst at BBVA.