July inflation: they expect an acceleration of the CPI, but it will be below 2.9% in the City

According to private estimates, the consumer price index (CPI) would be in the range of 1.8% and 2.4%, up to five tenths above June. If the forecasts above are confirmed 1.9%, would break with deceleration which was achieved in the previous two months.

So, after an erratic week for the Government for the conflict of pilots that was resolved with the suspension of the deregulatory decree of the sector and the partial approval of the Private Property Law, now faces another challenge, in which also The Treasury will seek to obtain more dollars with the Bonar 2029 (AO29) tender.

Although Buenos Aires statistics serve as a reference for national data, it must be taken into account that In 2022, greater weight was given to services in updating the formula of the Consumer Price Index of the City of Buenos Aires (Ipcba), which finally it did not happen with the methodology of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), which was scheduled to be modified, but was paused after the controversial departure of the Marcos Lavagna in February.

In his latest weekly report, LCG specified that, “by assigning the price variations of the main divisions of the City to the 12 categories used by the national body, national inflation would be around 2.8%”. However, he clarified that “if a more detailed analysis is carried out at the sub-item level, with the Indec weighting structure, the average variation in July would be 2.4%”.

For its part, Analytica expects 2.2% for July and anticipated 1.8% for August. “Our projection includes a strong impact on seasonal prices. Based on the City’s data, we correct the previous estimate, from 2% until then. It must be taken into account that the national CPI uses other weightings than those of the City and there are impacts on prices that are distributed differently in the rest of the regions,” he clarified. Claudio Caprarulo, director of the consulting firm.

To Libertad y Progreso, July gave 2.1%. “The City’s consumption basket gives more relevance to the weight of public services, transportation and entertainment. For this reason, precisely the increases in these items, which were delayed compared to the Interior, are reflected more in the City than in the rest of the country,” he analyzed. Aldo Abram, founder of the consulting firm.

Meanwhile, C&T gave 1.9% July, coinciding with the June data and the lowest since August 2025. Thus, he announced that the variation of the last 12 months would show 33.5%, the same as in June. “In the dynamics of the month, core inflation and the seasonal component were somewhat higher than in June, while regulated products moderated. Food and beverages rose less than the average, and the decline in fruits contributed to the result,” he explained. Claudio Tiscornia, director of the consulting firm.

Lastly, The lowest record for July was recorded by Orlando J. Ferreres & Asociados, with 1.8%. “There is a difference with the City in two areas, mainly: hotels, restaurants and recreation, and housing. In turn, two seasonal and important variables impacted the City: winter holidays and bonuses, the latter sensitive to expenses, something that does not happen in the rest of the country. In the last three years, The difference in July between the City’s data and the national data was always above half a point“, he pointed out Fausto Spotorno, director of the consulting firm.

In this way, August began with a new round of increases in services, which will once again put pressure on pockets and consumption, although They expect inflation to slow this month, after the slight rebound with which it would have closed July, economists anticipated.

Among the most notable increases are prepaid and private schools Buenos Aires with state subsidy. Instead, some cuts of meat went down in recent weeks and expect the trend to continue. Also some vegetables and especially fruits went down.